Can the Bills Control Their Own Destiny?

Short answer: with a substantial amount of help, yes. Depending on how certain games shake out this weekend, the Buffalo Bills could head into Baltimore with a "win-and-we're-in" situation in front of them. Here's how:

Where They Stand Now
1. San Diego Chargers (12-2 overall, 10-2 AFC)
2. Indianapolis Colts (11-3 overall, 8-2 AFC)*
3. Baltimore Ravens (11-3 overall, 8-2 AFC)*
4. New England Patriots (10-4 overall, 6-4 AFC)
5. Denver Broncos (8-6 overall, 7-3 AFC)
6. Cincinnati Bengals (8-6 overall, 6-4 AFC)
7. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-6 overall, 5-5 AFC)^
8. New York Jets (8-6 overall, 5-5 AFC)^
9. Buffalo Bills (7-7 overall, 5-5 AFC)
10. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7 overall, 4-6 AFC)#
11. Tennessee Titans (7-7 overall, 4-6 AFC)#
12. Kansas City Chiefs (7-7 overall, 3-7 AFC)

* - Indianapolis currently holds a common opponents tiebreaker over the Baltimore Ravens. The two teams have each played Tennessee, Denver and Cincinnati. Indianapolis is 3-1 in those games, with their only loss coming to the Titans. Baltimore is 2-2 in those games, with losses to the Broncos and the Bengals.

^ - Jacksonville currently holds a head-to-head tiebreaker over the New York Jets. In Week 5, the Jaguars hammered the Jets in a 41-0 victory.

# - Pittsburgh currently holds a common opponents tiebreaker over the Tennessee Titans. The two teams have each played San Diego, Miami and Baltimore. Pittsburgh is 1-2 in those games, beating the Dolphins in Week 1. Tennessee has lost to all three of those teams.

What Needs To Happen This Weekend
1. Buffalo beats Tennessee
- This is a no-brainer. In order for the Bills to make the playoffs, they need to win their last two games. The red-hot Titans pose a huge challenge, but the Bills are playing in front of a home crowd and Vince Young has been feeling the effects of an NFL-length season.

2. Miami beats NY Jets
- A Dolphins win would put the Jets at 8-7. That would place the Bills in a tie record-wise with the Jets, both overall and in the AFC East. The two teams would also share the same record against common opponents, meaning that Buffalo's better AFC conference record would give them the tiebreaker over the Jets. If the Jets win this game, there is no way for the Bills to catch them.

3. New England beats Jacksonville
- A Patriots victory would put the Jaguars at 8-7. Based on Buffalo's 27-24 victory over Jacksonville earlier this season, the Bills would hold the tiebreaker over the Jags. This, obviously, would vault the Bills ahead of the Jaguars with one week left in the season.

4. Denver beats Cincinnati
- If Denver wins this game, they all but secure themselves a wild card spot. If Cincinnati wins, neither team clinches. Why, then, do we want a Broncos victory? Two reasons: the first being that Buffalo really cannot catch Denver. The second reason is that if Denver wins, the Bills would vault past the Bengals in the standings due to their (very slight) advantage in the strength of victory column. This, of course, is contingent on the Bills beating Baltimore in Week 17... more on that in a moment. So, even though Denver would basically clinch a wild card spot, the advantage gained by a Bengals loss outweighs the fact that there is only one spot remaining.

5. Pittsburgh beats Baltimore
- Baltimore is still fighting for a first-round bye in the playoffs. With Indianapolis ahead of them, however, they must win this game to stay alive. Indy is playing Houston this weekend (see below), so the urgency of this victory is even higher. If the Steelers win and the Colts win, the Ravens are eliminated from the first-round-bye race, meaning that they will be playing on Wild Card weekend. If the Ravens win coupled with a Colts win, however, both teams would still be in contention for a first-round bye, meaning that the Ravens would play their regulars in Week 17 against the Bills. With a loss, it is likely that they would try to rest their starters for their home playoff game the following week.

Meanwhile, a Steelers victory would not hurt the Bills. Based on conference record, the Bills would beat out the Steelers even if both teams finished at 9-7.

6. Indianapolis beats Houston
- A Colts win coupled with a Steelers win would eliminate Baltimore from a bye in the first round. That would increase the chances of Baltimore resting their starters for a playoff game the next week. There is no advantage gained to Buffalo if Houston wins this game.

7. San Diego beats Seattle
- There is not much advantage for Buffalo in this game. A Chargers win, however, would officially cement a first-round bye for the Chargers, leaving the Colts to beat out the Ravens for the other spot.

8. Oakland beats Kansas City
- Even if the Chiefs win this game, their poor AFC record would still leave them behind the Bills in the playoff race. A loss to the Raiders would officially eliminate them from contention.

Where They'd Stand If That All Happened
1. San Diego Chargers (13-2, 10-2 AFC)
2. Indianapolis Colts (12-3, 9-2 AFC)
3. Baltimore Ravens (11-4, 8-3 AFC)
4. New England Patriots (11-4, 7-4 AFC)
5. Denver Broncos (9-6, 8-3 AFC)
6. Buffalo Bills (8-7, 6-5 AFC)
7. Cincinnati Bengals (8-7, 6-5 AFC)
8. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-7, 6-5 AFC)
9. New York Jets (8-7, 6-5 AFC)
10. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7, 5-6 AFC)
11. Tennessee Titans (7-8, 4-7 AFC) - would be officially eliminated
12. Kansas City Chiefs (7-8, 3-8 AFC) - would be officially eliminated

There they are, right in the #6 spot! That would leave the Bills with a win-and-you're in game in Baltimore in Week 17, with the Ravens playing for little more than keeping tuned up before the playoffs. This is the ideal situation for the Bills this weekend... lets pray that Santa brings us those gifts!