"Our style is simple but not that easy. Roll up your sleeves and play good, solid football. We want to develop a quality football team that is going to last. Our goal is to win the Super Bowl and win it again and again." -- Marv Levy

12.23.2006

Bills-Titans Preview


In their biggest game since the 2004 season finale against Pittsburgh, the Buffalo Bills prepare to meet the Tennessee Titans in tomorrow's battle of aspiring young playoff teams. The main story heading into the game is Titans quarterback Vince Young, who as a rookie has won 7 of his 11 starts. The Titans, once left for dead at 0-5, the Titans have won seven of their last nine under head coach Jeff Fisher's leadership. The streaking young team presents a huge challenge to the Bills.

The Bills, meanwhile, have won five of their last seven and are in the best position of the AFC's four 7-7 teams to make a playoff push. A win on Sunday would keep the team in the race, but they will need some help from other teams to control their own destiny heading into Week 17 (see the playoff scenarios post from Tuesday).

Here is the breakdown of the ultra-important Bills/Titans tilt...

When Buffalo Has the Ball
- Look for heavy doses of Willis McGahee (above) on Sunday. Tennessee is ranked 29th in the league defensively against the run, surrendering 144.6 rushing yards per game. Both McGahee and Anthony Thomas should see their fair share of carries as the Bills try to control the clock and keep Vince Young off the field.

In the passing game, expect a lot of short throws to the likes of Lee Evans and Josh Reed, who has become a key third-down target for emerging quarterback J.P. Losman. The Titans do not match up cornerbacks on wide receivers, so when Lee Evans is matched up with Reynaldo Hill (as opposed to Pac-Man Jones), look for Losman to try to hit the deep passes in those circumstances.

Ultimately, Buffalo will try to establish a dominant run game to exploit Tennessee's biggest weakness. Losman's passes will mostly be short and controlled to prevent the Titans from forcing turnovers and scoring defensive touchdowns - something that has been key in their big win streak.

When Tennessee Has the Ball
- Like Buffalo, the Titans will likely try to establish the run game with former Bill Travis Henry, who has been looking forward to this game for quite some time. The combination of Henry and Young's legs have been difficult for opposing defenses to stop this year - young has 462 rushing yards, a league record for a rookie quarterback.

As good as Tennessee's run game is, their aerial attack is that bad. Young has struggled to make plays in the passing game with three of his top targets on injured reserve (David Givens, Erron Kinney and Ben Troupe). In addition, Drew Bennett is listed as questionable for the game, though it is likely he will play.

Buffalo will likely stack their defensive front in an effort to shut down the running combination of Henry and Young. They will likely force the game into Young's hands, and the future star may have trouble putting the team on his shoulders against an up-and-coming defense.

Prediction
- Buffalo has a clear advantage in this game, playing on their home field against an opponent that is beat up and tiring out. The Bills will need to follow their tested formula of winning the turnover battle to emerge successful in this game - Tennessee has won ballgames based on big plays by their defense. If the Bills can force the game into Vince Young's hands, they should have no problem emerging victorious.

Final Score: Buffalo 24, Tennessee 10.

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