Assessing Buffalo's Draft Needs

Coming off a 2006 draft which saw the Bills select five players that would eventually start games last season, the pressure is now on Bills GM Marv Levy and his scouting staff to replicate those results in this year's draft. With many changes set to occur via free agency this off-season, the Bills will need a draft with similar results to yield new starters and build quality depth for the 2007 season.

Players such as strong safety Donte Whitner (first round), free safety Ko Simpson (fourth round), defensive tackle Kyle Williams (fifth round), linebacker Keith Ellison (sixth round) and right tackle Terrance Pennington (seventh round, pictured right) played important roles as starters in the Bills' improvement this past season. In addition, high hope remains for big future production out of defensive tackle John McCargo (first round) and cornerback Ashton Youboty (third round). All of these players are certain to see their roles increase in their second year.

After a 7-9 finish to the season, the Bills - while certainly a team on the rise - have a lot of holes to fill if they wish to end their playoff drought next season. Below is a position-by-position analysis of Buffalo's personnel and how off-season changes may effect the way the Bills draft:

QUARTERBACK - It's pretty safe to assume that the Bills will not be drafting a quarterback. J.P. Losman made huge strides during the 2006 season and appears to have locked down the starting role beyond even next season. In addition, the Bills have quality backups in veteran Kelly Holcomb and youngster Craig Nall. Look for Holcomb to play out his contract (two more seasons) as Losman's backup, with Nall taking over the backup role at some point. Nall has great ability and could be a Frank Reich-type backup to Losman in the future.

RUNNING BACK - This is one of the foggiest positions to forecast, mostly due to the presence of Drew Rosenhaus as the agent for starting runner Willis McGahee. With one year left on McGahee's rookie contract, the star could look for a long-term extension this off-season. If he does seek one and is rebuted, Buffalo could be in the market for a starting runner if McGahee holds out - especially when you consider that Anthony Thomas is an unrestricted free agent. Look for Thomas to be re-signed quickly, and don't be shocked if the Bills take a runner in the early-to-mid rounds as insurance. McGahee likely won't be in Buffalo past next season, so the Bills should look into drafting his replacement.

FULLBACK - As unimportant as this position may seem, the fullback is actually a vital asset in Buffalo's offensive scheme. Daimon Shelton finished the year on IR and is an unrestricted free agent, so don't expect him back. Reserve tight end Brad Cieslak played admirably as the fullback in Shelton's absence, but he may see more time at tight end this coming year. If the Bills bring in a new fullback, it will almost assuredly be a free agent and not a draftee.

WIDE RECEIVER - Aside from Lee Evans (who should have been invited to the Pro Bowl), the Bills do not have a consistent threat in their receiving corps. Players such as Peerless Price, Josh Reed and Roscoe Parrish all made their fair share of plays, but none of these players are consistent enough to pose much of a threat as the #2 wideout. All four are under contract and are set to return, which bodes well for Losman. However, in order to fully utilize the talents of Evans, it might be prudent to bring in another receiver who will be consistent enough to take double-teams off of Evans' side. That might not be possible in a rookie, but nonetheless, targets such as Dwayne Jarrett and Jeff Samardzija might be intriguing picks in the first round. More likely, the Bills will re-sign Andre' Davis for special teams purposes and draft a wide receiver on Day Two to compete with the likes of Sam Aiken and a potential mid-tier free agent.

TIGHT END - In the last half-dozen games of the season, Robert Royal emerged as a pretty viable red zone target. His run-blocking is tenacious, and with his receiving skills seemingly emerging, he will likely be back as the starting tight end. However, this position is relatively weak - Ryan Neufeld ended the season on IR, Brad Cieslak was forced to play fullback and former third-round pick Kevin Everett did little to impress the new coaching staff. Don't expect much overhaul at this position, but it wouldn't shock anyone to see the Bills add a legitimate receiving threat at this position - the Bills like to operate out of two-tight end sets.

OFFENSIVE TACKLE - Contrary to popular belief, the Bills will not be in the market for a starting offensive tackle this off-season. Left tackle Jason Peters is a hot candidate for Pro Bowl consideration next season, and right tackle Terrance Pennington is likely to retain that post as the Bills look to maintain continuity along a line that played pretty well in the second half of '06. However, beyond that point, the Bills have very little to offer. Mike Gandy flopped as a tackle and will likely remain inside at guard permanently. The only other viable option at tackle is Brad Butler, who saw extremely limited action as a rookie. With a raw prospect on the right side, the Bills will likely sign a mid-tier veteran to back up both Peters and Pennington, and may add a tackle or two in the draft - especially if they plan on leaving Butler inside as a reserve guard.

OFFENSIVE GUARD - Like the tackle position, don't expect huge change here. Unrestricted free agent Gandy will almost assuredly be re-signed to take up his left guard post once again. In addition, oft-injured veteran Chris Villarrial should be healthy enough to resume playing at right guard. If, however, the Bills choose to cut ties with the veteran - who is nearing the end of both his contract and his playing career - the Bills won't be in bad shape. Duke Preston will have a good shot at retaining his right guard starting spot as the Bills develop continuity. Tutan Reyes gives the team a solid veteran presence that can play either guard spot, and the team still has hard-nosed youngsters in Aaron Merz and Brad Butler to develop. Not all of these players will make the '07 roster, but there are options abound at guard for the Bills.

CENTER - Just like the rest of the offensive line, there will not be much overhaul here. In fact, the personnel at center is likely to remain exactly the same as it was in 2006. Melvin Fowler will remain the starter, and the combination of Duke Preston and Aaron Merz will serve as the reserves. One of the traits that Buffalo looks for in its interior linemen is versatility, so it's safe to assume that any depth they have at guard will have the ability to play center as well - as Preston and Merz provide example of.

DEFENSIVE END - Even with veteran Chris Kelsay possibly leaving as an unrestricted free agent, the Bills have reasonable depth here. Aaron Schobel is one of the league's most feared pass rushers, Ryan Denney is a steady contributor both outside and inside and Tony Hargrove played admirably after coming to Buffalo via trade in the middle of the season. Hargrove is a restricted free agent, but his energy is much needed along the Bills' line and he appears to be in the Bills' long-term plans. He would likely compete with Denney for the starting left end spot should Kelsay leave. In addition, the Bills still have young Ryan Neill on the roster, who has the potential to develop into a solid backup to Schobel as well as a solid special teams player. If anyone is brought in here, it will be a rookie, it will be in the middle rounds of the draft, and their specialty will be getting after the quarterback.

DEFENSIVE TACKLE - A lot of talk surrounds the Bills and their need to shore up their porous run defense. In my humble opinion, the bulk of the work done to the run defense this off-season will not occur at this position. A lot of misinformed fans want the Bills to bring in big, space-eating defensive tackles to keep blockers off our linebackers. That, however, is not how Buffalo's defensive system works. Larry Tripplett and Kyle Williams will likely be the starters once again. You will see John McCargo get much more work coming off his injury. Tim Anderson is a free agent and likely will not be retained. The Bills like to rotate four tackles, so there is a high possibility that a tackle will be drafted, and there is also a high possibility that a tackle would be drafted early. Just don't expect wholesale changes here - this group still has a lot of upside and they all fit well in the system.

OUTSIDE LINEBACKER - This could get interesting. Last year's starters, Takeo Spikes and Angelo Crowell, both struggled with injury. There has been a lot of talk surrounding Crowell and his potential move inside if London Fletcher-Baker leaves via free agency. Keith Ellison played well on the outside last year, but ideally, he would remain the team's top reserve and a potential special teams captain. If Fletcher-Baker does depart, look for Crowell to shift to the middle and for the team to bring in one to two outside 'backers. One could conceivably start over Ellison, and the other would be groomed as the eventual replacement for the aging Spikes. Recall also that Josh Stamer and Mario Haggan - valuable special teams performers - are still on the roster. Linebacker seems to be the position most likely to receive first-round consideration at this point - especially if a high-profile linebacker distinguishes themselves in pre-draft workouts. Penn State standout Paul Posluszny would be a perfect example of the type of linebacker the Bills are seeking.

INSIDE LINEBACKER - For a player who by all rights should have made the Pro Bowl this season, London Fletcher-Baker doesn't get nearly the respect around the league that he deserves. With that said, it looks increasingly unlikely that he will be a part of the Buffalo Bills in 2007. Dick Jauron and his coaching staff would like to add a bit more muscle to their linebacking corps - all the better for shedding blockers behind a line that is small by design. Thus, the younger and more physical Crowell would replace Fletcher inside, backed up by the slight John DiGiorgio. If the team decides to leave Crowell at the weak side, look for an early-round linebacker to be drafted to man the middle - even if at first they're playing behind a veteran free agent.

CORNERBACK - Obviously the big question at corner is whether or not the Bills move quickly enough - and with proper funds - to re-sign veteran Nate Clements. This decision will have the biggest impact on the Bills' plan of attack this off-season. If Clements stays, the Bills will be able to focus the majority of their attention on shoring up a run defense and providing depth at the skill positions and along the line on offense. If Clements leaves, however, it will be imperative for the team to find his replacement right away. Ashton Youboty has starter potential, but after playing minimally last season, is not nearly ready to assume a starting role. The team could bring back free agent Kiwaukee Thomas to start and let Youboty compete with Jabari Greer for playing time; this would leave the oft-exploited Terrence McGee as the team's top corner, however. Regardless if Clements stays or goes, look for one to two players (veteran and rookie alike) to be brought in for depth purposes.


SAFETY - This is one position where the Bills do not have much of an issue. Based on the defensive scheme the Bills play, the safeties don't have to do much other than get their teammates lined up correctly, tackle soundly and play consistently. Look for the coaching staff to maximize the talents of Donte Whitner and especially Ko Simpson (pictured right) by allowing them to make more plays on the football in their second season in Perry Fewell's system. The team also has good depth - Matt Bowen is a solid special teams contributor, and Jim Leonhard has the ability to play both strong and free safety. Even if Coy Wire is retained (he is a free agent), he may be moved to linebacker.

KICKING UNITS - Absolutely nothing will change here. Rian Lindell has a shiny new five-year contract and will be kicking here for a while. Same goes for Brian Moorman, who is widely regarded as the league's best punter. And long snapper Mike Schneck has been with the kicking duo for two seasons, and the three-man unit is among the best and most consistent performers in the league. It would be foolish to change that, and more foolish to think that any change will be made here.