Bills Need to Focus on RB

With Super Bowl XLI in the books (note: Congratulations to Peyton Manning for leaving those Dan Marino comparisons in the dust), the focus now shifts to the NFL's off-season. (Because who cares about the Pro Bowl, right? The players invited don't even want to show up.)

This off-season is likely going to be one of upheaval, massive personnel moves and a few raised eyebrows at One Bills Drive. Marv Levy has big decisions to make regarding high-profile players such as Nate Clements and London Fletcher-Baker. He also must deliver another standout draft class this April if the team hopes to continue to build for the future. He will continue to monitor a young coaching staff - Dick Jauron and his coaches did a superb job in 2006, but the coaches need to make as much progress as the players if the Bills hope to contend for the playoffs in 2007.

In this humble blogger's opinion, however, no decision is as important this off-season as the situation in Buffalo's backfield. Running back needs to be addressed - both from a personnel as well as a public standpoint - and it needs to have the highest priority.

Will Willis Be Back?
Much has been made about Willis McGahee (pictured above) and his negative comments about the city of Buffalo since the end of the season. McGahee, who averaged just 3.8 yards per carry and missed two games due to injury, still has the look of being the team's workhorse in 2007. But something needs to be done about him, and quickly.

McGahee has never struck even the dimmest of Bills fans as a "Marv Levy guy"; that is, a player who puts the team first and has high character. Although he is undeniably a talented back, McGahee has never averaged more than 4.0 yards per carry in a season. His eleven touchdowns the last two seasons are two less than the 13 he posted in 2004. Most importantly, with Drew Rosenhaus as his agent, McGahee may be looking for a big pay day - which is a fine excuse and a likely route to leave Buffalo.

With one year left on his rookie contract, this is very likely McGahee's final season in a Bills uniform. Unless, of course, Rosenhaus pushes for a holdout or a trade - which for the time being appears unlikely. The threat of a holdout does mean that some action regarding McGahee should be taken - whether it's a contract extension, a trade or a public reprimand for his comments.

A-Train Rolling out of Town?
Perhaps no backup on the 2006 roster was as instrumental to the team's success as runner Anthony Thomas (pictured right). Thomas played well, rushing for 378 yards, two scores and finishing sixth on the team with 22 receptions. The veteran runner will turn 30 next season, however, and isn't a long-term answer to the eventual "Willis McGahee departure".

Thomas is also an unrestricted free agent, after playing out the only year of his one-year contract. After a productive season, he could see a few offers from teams looking for a veteran presence in their backfield. A favorite of coach Jauron's, it is very likely that Thomas will be retained to serve in the same backup/third-down capacity that he played last season. But as much of a fan-favorite as he is, he won't get a long-term contract and he won't be in Buffalo much more than two or three years.

Two-Back Approach Breeding Winners
The traditional approach to the running back position in the NFL is to have one workhorse runner; prominent examples of that approach today include Larry Johnson in Kansas City, Jamal Lewis in Baltimore and Steven Jackson in St. Louis.

There is no need to look further than this year's conference championship participants to realize that a new trend is developing. All four teams in those games - Chicago, New Orleans, Indianapolis and New England - had offenses that featured at least two running backs on a predominant level. Chicago has a potent one-two punch in Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson. New Orleans found a way to incorporate Reggie Bush around veteran Deuce McAllister. Indianapolis used the right mix of veteran Dominic Rhodes and rookie Joseph Addai to effectively replace Edgerrin James and win a Super Bowl in the process. Finally, New England used three backs in its run - veteran Corey Dillon, rookie Laurence Maroney and the ever-crafty Kevin Faulk.

Mark this down: you will see the majority of teams attempt to employ some form of atwo-back system in 2007. Some teams already have (Dallas - Julius Jones and Marion Barber III; Denver - Tatum Bell and Mike Bell; Cincinnati - Rudi Johnson and Chris Perry). Notice that all three of those teams either made the playoffs or were eliminated in Week 17. Two-back systems are breeding success in the NFL, and the Bills need to jump on that bandwagon quickly.

Where Buffalo Stands
From the two-back standpoint, Buffalo appears to have more questions than answers. Even if McGahee doesn't leave, he does not appear to possess the team-first attitude necessary to sharing a rushing load. Thomas likely will be back, but his ideal role is as a veteran complement to the starter. Only time will tell what Marv's plan of attack is.

Here's my (conservative) guess: McGahee will play out his contract year in Buffalo, looking to have great stats to increase his pay day. Thomas will be re-signed. Levy will use an early-to-mid round draft pick to select the successor to McGahee, with the idea that Thomas will be the backup for the next 2-3 years.

McGahee Trade?
Since I don't have the luxury of time, I'm going to tell you what I'd do now: re-sign Thomas. His veteran presence can only help on a young ball club, even if his role diminishes as early as next year.

I'd also try to trade McGahee. With a year left on his deal, he's going to be looking for big money soon. He also doesn't fit into Levy's character-related plans. There are plenty of teams out there looking for a good runner - Baltimore (if Jamal Lewis leaves), Carolina, Cleveland, Houston, and the New York Giants could all be in the market for a workhorse-type back. If Levy can get a first-round pick, he'd move McGahee in a heartbeat. I'd do it for a second-round pick - Buffalo only has six picks this year, and there is plenty of depth available in the second round - especially at middle linebacker.

With Thomas as my proposed #2 back, I would use one of my top three picks (a first and two seconds) on a runner. Ohio State's Antonio Pittman, Notre Dame's Darius Walker (above left) and Louisville's Kolby Smith would all provide the Bills with better versatility in the backfield. The receiving skills of Walker and Smith in particular would complement Thomas nicely. I would then employ an offensive scheme where both running backs (and a solid third if possible) play fairly even portions of the game.

*Side note: Buffalo needs to add quality depth to its skill positions as well; I'll have a post on that in short order.

Sound Off!
What do you think, Bills fans? Sound off on the RB situation by leaving a comment!