Colts-Bears XLI Tilt has Buffalo Undertones

First of all, let me start this post by expressing my glee. With a minute remaining in last night's AFC Championship Game, any fellow New England Patriot-hater was undoubtedly thinking the same thing I was: "Oh, no."

With the Colts clinging to a 38-34 lead, Tom Brady was on the move again. On just two throws, he had his Patriots into Colts territory and poised to pull off yet another playoff comeback win. And then...

Marlin Jackson saved my sanity with his game-clinching interception. THE PATS ARE DEAD!!!

Now, Peyton Manning (pictured) leads his Colts into Super Bowl XLI, where the AFC upstarts will take on the best of the NFC in the Chicago Bears. This game features one of the league's highest-powered offenses against one of the more dominant defenses in recent memory. Sure to be an interesting game, it is important to note the ties that this game has with the Buffalo Bills.

Can Polian Win the Big One?
Former Bills GM Bill Polian is now a true legend at his craft. The genius personnel guru has now built three franchises - Buffalo, Carolina and now Indianapolis - into Super Bowl participants. With all of that success, however, it remains a flaw on his record that he has never won a title game. With a high-powered offense, an opportunistic defense and a fantastic head coach in Tony Dungy, XLI appears to be Polian's best shot at securing his first title as Indy's Team President.

Two More Colt Connections
Two other members of the AFC champion Colts have distinct Bills ties. Reserve defensive end Bo Schobel is the cousin of current Bills defensive end Aaron Schobel. Additionally, a member of the Colts' coaching staff was one of the key contributors to the Bills' four Super Bowl runs in the early 1990s. After becoming a fan favorite in Buffalo, Pete Metzelaars has a chance to earn his first ring as Indianapolis' Offensive Quality Control Coach.

Ruben and Rusty
It will also be nice to see former Bills standout linemen Ruben Brown get a crack at a Super Bowl ring. While he never participated in many big games with the Bills, he was a perennial Pro Bowl player who is still missed along Buffalo's shaky offensive line. He now serves as Chicago's starting left guard, and has been an instrumental part of the successes of runners Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson.

More interestingly, the Bears' Strength and Conditioning Coordinator is Rusty Jones, who held the same position with the Bills for 20 years. Jones was an integral part of Buffalo's Super Bowl era, and now he will finally get another opportunity to win that ever-elusive ring. He has done a fantastic job in Chicago this season, and deserves more than most to be honored for his work.

2006 Opponents
The 2006 Bills - far removed from the Super Bowl era - played both Chicago and Indianapolis during the regular season. In Week 5, Buffalo went into Chicago and was promptly lambasted by the then-surging Bears, dropping a 40-7 decision. The Bears forced three J.P. Losman interceptions on the day, and Rex Grossman was very proficient, throwing two touchdowns to complement the two scored on the ground by Cedric Benson. Game Stats

In Week 10, the Bills traveled to Indianapolis and fared much better despite losing once again. The Bills were able to successfully contain Peyton Manning's aerial attack all day, and it took a missed Rian Lindell field goal to seal the Colts' 17-16 win. Manning threw for 236 yards - average by his standards - and the Bills used a Terrence McGee fumble return for a touchdown to keep themselves in it. Game Stats

An Edge to Chicago?
Based on how Buffalo played against these two teams, it appears that Chicago - if they play to their potential - could have an edge on the Colts. Of course, we all know that this story is just one of a million that will decide the winner of Super Bowl XLI. It is sometimes relevant to note, however, the local ties to the sporting world's biggest event.

Assessing Buffalo's Draft Needs

Coming off a 2006 draft which saw the Bills select five players that would eventually start games last season, the pressure is now on Bills GM Marv Levy and his scouting staff to replicate those results in this year's draft. With many changes set to occur via free agency this off-season, the Bills will need a draft with similar results to yield new starters and build quality depth for the 2007 season.

Players such as strong safety Donte Whitner (first round), free safety Ko Simpson (fourth round), defensive tackle Kyle Williams (fifth round), linebacker Keith Ellison (sixth round) and right tackle Terrance Pennington (seventh round, pictured right) played important roles as starters in the Bills' improvement this past season. In addition, high hope remains for big future production out of defensive tackle John McCargo (first round) and cornerback Ashton Youboty (third round). All of these players are certain to see their roles increase in their second year.

After a 7-9 finish to the season, the Bills - while certainly a team on the rise - have a lot of holes to fill if they wish to end their playoff drought next season. Below is a position-by-position analysis of Buffalo's personnel and how off-season changes may effect the way the Bills draft:

QUARTERBACK - It's pretty safe to assume that the Bills will not be drafting a quarterback. J.P. Losman made huge strides during the 2006 season and appears to have locked down the starting role beyond even next season. In addition, the Bills have quality backups in veteran Kelly Holcomb and youngster Craig Nall. Look for Holcomb to play out his contract (two more seasons) as Losman's backup, with Nall taking over the backup role at some point. Nall has great ability and could be a Frank Reich-type backup to Losman in the future.

RUNNING BACK - This is one of the foggiest positions to forecast, mostly due to the presence of Drew Rosenhaus as the agent for starting runner Willis McGahee. With one year left on McGahee's rookie contract, the star could look for a long-term extension this off-season. If he does seek one and is rebuted, Buffalo could be in the market for a starting runner if McGahee holds out - especially when you consider that Anthony Thomas is an unrestricted free agent. Look for Thomas to be re-signed quickly, and don't be shocked if the Bills take a runner in the early-to-mid rounds as insurance. McGahee likely won't be in Buffalo past next season, so the Bills should look into drafting his replacement.

FULLBACK - As unimportant as this position may seem, the fullback is actually a vital asset in Buffalo's offensive scheme. Daimon Shelton finished the year on IR and is an unrestricted free agent, so don't expect him back. Reserve tight end Brad Cieslak played admirably as the fullback in Shelton's absence, but he may see more time at tight end this coming year. If the Bills bring in a new fullback, it will almost assuredly be a free agent and not a draftee.

WIDE RECEIVER - Aside from Lee Evans (who should have been invited to the Pro Bowl), the Bills do not have a consistent threat in their receiving corps. Players such as Peerless Price, Josh Reed and Roscoe Parrish all made their fair share of plays, but none of these players are consistent enough to pose much of a threat as the #2 wideout. All four are under contract and are set to return, which bodes well for Losman. However, in order to fully utilize the talents of Evans, it might be prudent to bring in another receiver who will be consistent enough to take double-teams off of Evans' side. That might not be possible in a rookie, but nonetheless, targets such as Dwayne Jarrett and Jeff Samardzija might be intriguing picks in the first round. More likely, the Bills will re-sign Andre' Davis for special teams purposes and draft a wide receiver on Day Two to compete with the likes of Sam Aiken and a potential mid-tier free agent.

TIGHT END - In the last half-dozen games of the season, Robert Royal emerged as a pretty viable red zone target. His run-blocking is tenacious, and with his receiving skills seemingly emerging, he will likely be back as the starting tight end. However, this position is relatively weak - Ryan Neufeld ended the season on IR, Brad Cieslak was forced to play fullback and former third-round pick Kevin Everett did little to impress the new coaching staff. Don't expect much overhaul at this position, but it wouldn't shock anyone to see the Bills add a legitimate receiving threat at this position - the Bills like to operate out of two-tight end sets.

OFFENSIVE TACKLE - Contrary to popular belief, the Bills will not be in the market for a starting offensive tackle this off-season. Left tackle Jason Peters is a hot candidate for Pro Bowl consideration next season, and right tackle Terrance Pennington is likely to retain that post as the Bills look to maintain continuity along a line that played pretty well in the second half of '06. However, beyond that point, the Bills have very little to offer. Mike Gandy flopped as a tackle and will likely remain inside at guard permanently. The only other viable option at tackle is Brad Butler, who saw extremely limited action as a rookie. With a raw prospect on the right side, the Bills will likely sign a mid-tier veteran to back up both Peters and Pennington, and may add a tackle or two in the draft - especially if they plan on leaving Butler inside as a reserve guard.

OFFENSIVE GUARD - Like the tackle position, don't expect huge change here. Unrestricted free agent Gandy will almost assuredly be re-signed to take up his left guard post once again. In addition, oft-injured veteran Chris Villarrial should be healthy enough to resume playing at right guard. If, however, the Bills choose to cut ties with the veteran - who is nearing the end of both his contract and his playing career - the Bills won't be in bad shape. Duke Preston will have a good shot at retaining his right guard starting spot as the Bills develop continuity. Tutan Reyes gives the team a solid veteran presence that can play either guard spot, and the team still has hard-nosed youngsters in Aaron Merz and Brad Butler to develop. Not all of these players will make the '07 roster, but there are options abound at guard for the Bills.

CENTER - Just like the rest of the offensive line, there will not be much overhaul here. In fact, the personnel at center is likely to remain exactly the same as it was in 2006. Melvin Fowler will remain the starter, and the combination of Duke Preston and Aaron Merz will serve as the reserves. One of the traits that Buffalo looks for in its interior linemen is versatility, so it's safe to assume that any depth they have at guard will have the ability to play center as well - as Preston and Merz provide example of.

DEFENSIVE END - Even with veteran Chris Kelsay possibly leaving as an unrestricted free agent, the Bills have reasonable depth here. Aaron Schobel is one of the league's most feared pass rushers, Ryan Denney is a steady contributor both outside and inside and Tony Hargrove played admirably after coming to Buffalo via trade in the middle of the season. Hargrove is a restricted free agent, but his energy is much needed along the Bills' line and he appears to be in the Bills' long-term plans. He would likely compete with Denney for the starting left end spot should Kelsay leave. In addition, the Bills still have young Ryan Neill on the roster, who has the potential to develop into a solid backup to Schobel as well as a solid special teams player. If anyone is brought in here, it will be a rookie, it will be in the middle rounds of the draft, and their specialty will be getting after the quarterback.

DEFENSIVE TACKLE - A lot of talk surrounds the Bills and their need to shore up their porous run defense. In my humble opinion, the bulk of the work done to the run defense this off-season will not occur at this position. A lot of misinformed fans want the Bills to bring in big, space-eating defensive tackles to keep blockers off our linebackers. That, however, is not how Buffalo's defensive system works. Larry Tripplett and Kyle Williams will likely be the starters once again. You will see John McCargo get much more work coming off his injury. Tim Anderson is a free agent and likely will not be retained. The Bills like to rotate four tackles, so there is a high possibility that a tackle will be drafted, and there is also a high possibility that a tackle would be drafted early. Just don't expect wholesale changes here - this group still has a lot of upside and they all fit well in the system.

OUTSIDE LINEBACKER - This could get interesting. Last year's starters, Takeo Spikes and Angelo Crowell, both struggled with injury. There has been a lot of talk surrounding Crowell and his potential move inside if London Fletcher-Baker leaves via free agency. Keith Ellison played well on the outside last year, but ideally, he would remain the team's top reserve and a potential special teams captain. If Fletcher-Baker does depart, look for Crowell to shift to the middle and for the team to bring in one to two outside 'backers. One could conceivably start over Ellison, and the other would be groomed as the eventual replacement for the aging Spikes. Recall also that Josh Stamer and Mario Haggan - valuable special teams performers - are still on the roster. Linebacker seems to be the position most likely to receive first-round consideration at this point - especially if a high-profile linebacker distinguishes themselves in pre-draft workouts. Penn State standout Paul Posluszny would be a perfect example of the type of linebacker the Bills are seeking.

INSIDE LINEBACKER - For a player who by all rights should have made the Pro Bowl this season, London Fletcher-Baker doesn't get nearly the respect around the league that he deserves. With that said, it looks increasingly unlikely that he will be a part of the Buffalo Bills in 2007. Dick Jauron and his coaching staff would like to add a bit more muscle to their linebacking corps - all the better for shedding blockers behind a line that is small by design. Thus, the younger and more physical Crowell would replace Fletcher inside, backed up by the slight John DiGiorgio. If the team decides to leave Crowell at the weak side, look for an early-round linebacker to be drafted to man the middle - even if at first they're playing behind a veteran free agent.

CORNERBACK - Obviously the big question at corner is whether or not the Bills move quickly enough - and with proper funds - to re-sign veteran Nate Clements. This decision will have the biggest impact on the Bills' plan of attack this off-season. If Clements stays, the Bills will be able to focus the majority of their attention on shoring up a run defense and providing depth at the skill positions and along the line on offense. If Clements leaves, however, it will be imperative for the team to find his replacement right away. Ashton Youboty has starter potential, but after playing minimally last season, is not nearly ready to assume a starting role. The team could bring back free agent Kiwaukee Thomas to start and let Youboty compete with Jabari Greer for playing time; this would leave the oft-exploited Terrence McGee as the team's top corner, however. Regardless if Clements stays or goes, look for one to two players (veteran and rookie alike) to be brought in for depth purposes.


SAFETY - This is one position where the Bills do not have much of an issue. Based on the defensive scheme the Bills play, the safeties don't have to do much other than get their teammates lined up correctly, tackle soundly and play consistently. Look for the coaching staff to maximize the talents of Donte Whitner and especially Ko Simpson (pictured right) by allowing them to make more plays on the football in their second season in Perry Fewell's system. The team also has good depth - Matt Bowen is a solid special teams contributor, and Jim Leonhard has the ability to play both strong and free safety. Even if Coy Wire is retained (he is a free agent), he may be moved to linebacker.

KICKING UNITS - Absolutely nothing will change here. Rian Lindell has a shiny new five-year contract and will be kicking here for a while. Same goes for Brian Moorman, who is widely regarded as the league's best punter. And long snapper Mike Schneck has been with the kicking duo for two seasons, and the three-man unit is among the best and most consistent performers in the league. It would be foolish to change that, and more foolish to think that any change will be made here.

Ten Free Agents the Bills Should Consider

After carefully perusing Buffalo's roster - including potential free agents and players who may be moved due to special circumstances - it's clear that the Bills may see a fair amount of roster turnover this off-season. With roughly $37 million to spend on players this off-season, Buffalo is in good position to add some quality talent to their 2007 roster.

Here are ten free agents who will provide excellent value to the Bills' team. These players don't fall under the "big-name" category, so their asking prices would be considerably less than some of the bigger names on the market.

Dominic Rhodes, RB, Indianapolis
- Rhodes (pictured right), an unrestricted free agent, started all sixteen regular-season contests for the Colts this season. However, rookie Joseph Addai is certain to become the club's starter next season, and Rhodes could seek greener pastures elsewhere. A former 1,000-yard rusher who is only 28 years old, Rhodes would be a fantastic backup and third-down back to complement Willis McGahee. Remember this: Anthony Thomas is an unrestricted free agent, and with one year left on McGahee's deal, he could be destined for a holdout should he not receive an extension. If that happens, Rhodes' value would skyrocket in Buffalo.

Kenny Watson, RB, Cincinnati
- Like Rhodes, Kenny Watson is entering free agency after spending the first portion of his career in the Bengals' crowded backfield. Cincinnati has two upper-tier runners locked up in Rudi Johnson and Chris Perry, so the likelihood of Watson seeing significant money from the Bengals is low. Watson, an unrestricted free agent at age 29, is an excellent receiver out of the backfield and has a penchant for picking up key first downs. His asking price would be fairly lower than Rhodes; however, it is questionable whether Watson could handle a full rushing load as a team's #1 back.

Patrick Crayton, WR, Dallas
- Last off-season, Bills general manager Marv Levy went after several restricted free agents in an effort to bring younger talent onto his team. One of the most coveted RFAs this off-season is Cowboys receiver Patrick Crayton, who has developed a strong rapport with Tony Romo in Big D. If Terrell Owens is jettisoned, Crayton will no doubt receive a large extension from the Cowboys. However, if a team were to offer enough for the emerging star, it isn't likely that the Cowboys could afford to keep him. Crayton would offer J.P. Losman a solid target as the #2 or #3 wideout, and would also excel on special teams.

David Diehl, OG, New York Giants
- If you watched the Giants-Eagles playoff game yesterday, you may wonder why the oft-penalized Diehl makes this list. The answer is simple: Diehl is young, versatile and would be a quality depth addition to the Bills' offensive line. If Mike Gandy departs via free agency (which is looking more and more unlikely as the Bills try to develop continuity along the offensive front), Diehl has the ability to fill in at left guard. At age 26, he also has the ability to play left tackle and could even spell Chris Villarrial at right guard. Even if Diehl did not start, he would provide excellent, experienced depth behind the Bills' young starters at a fair price.

Kris Dielman, OG, San Diego Chargers
- The best guard on the line that paved the way for LaDainian Tomlinson's historic season, Dielman may not make it onto the open market. However, he's young (26), hard-nosed and would be a terrific addition. The Bills would only pursue Dielman if they were to move Mike Gandy to a different position or let him go. Dielman plays left guard in San Diego, and would likely assume that role here in Buffalo. Dielman is one of the pricier players on this list, but his ability makes him well worth it. Teamed with future Pro Bowler Jason Peters, Dielman would give the Bills an excellent left side of the line.

Jarret Johnson, DE, Baltimore
- This guy defines the word "tough". Johnson goes 6'3", 270, but has the ability to play inside, outside and even linebacker in some occasions. In Baltimore's scheme, Johnson appeared often in run situations as a fourth linebacker, and was part of a unit that allowed the lowest total points per game this season. With Chris Kelsay an unrestricted free agent, Johnson would come in as the Bills' fourth defensive end (behind Aaron Schobel, RFA Anthony Hargrove and Ryan Denney) and would give the Bills a proven run-stuffer along the defensive line. Once again, Johnson is a player that would come at a reduced price and would be able to compete on special teams as well.

Cory Redding, DE, Detroit
- Detroit's best down lineman this season, Redding is steadily rising up team's free agency charts as the playoffs continue. Blessed with phenomenal strength, Redding played both left end and defensive tackle for the Lions this past season. He would likely fill a role similar to that played by Tony Hargrove for the Bills this past season, where he would be a rotational guy who specialized on passing downs. He also has the ability to unseat Kyle Williams on the inside, though he would need to bulk up to do so (he currently stands at 6'4", 290). Redding is sure to be pursued by a lot of teams, which could drive up his asking price. But his addition would be a welcome one in Buffalo.


Travis Fisher, CB, St. Louis
- In the likely event that Nate Clements departs for greener pastures (and bank accounts), Fisher (pictured left) would be a cheap alternative with experience in the Bills' Cover-2 scheme. Only 27 years old, Fisher will likely leave St. Louis as that team builds its secondary around second-year corner Tye Hill. While not a proven #1 CB, Fisher could nonetheless compete for playing time alongside Terrence McGee, Kiwaukee Thomas (if re-signed) and Ashton Youboty. The Bills could then draft a corner to add even more talent to their corner class. It is important to note that if the Bills do sign a second-tier corner such as Fisher, it will show the amount of faith the coaching staff has in Youboty and his ability to become a #1 corner.

Randall Gay, CB, New England
- Another restricted free agent, Gay has resided on the Patriots' injured reserve list for the majority of this season. However, the 24-year-old has great size for the Cover 2 scheme (5'11", 190) and has made some plays in Bill Belichick's scheme. He would also be a standout special teams performer. With Clements like leaving, Gay is another young player with a world of talent that would learn to excel in Perry Fewell's defensive scheme.

Demorrio Williams, LB, Atlanta
- A slightly undersized 'backer with fantastic speed, Williams is an experienced starter who fits in well with Perry Fewell's speed-oriented defensive system. As a restricted free agent, it might take a significant offer to get him out of Atlanta, where he has started the past two seasons. With London Fletcher-Baker upset with the team and Takeo Spikes' future in jeopardy as well, Williams (or linebackers like him) will likely be the target of Levy this off-season. With Williams on board, the Bills could move Angelo Crowell to the inside and have even more speed and toughness in their linebacking corps.

Bills' Off-Season Strategy

With the 2006 season in the books, the 7-9 Buffalo Bills have established some solid building blocks heading into one of the most important off-seasons in recent memory. The Bills, who remained in playoff contention through Week 16 for only the second time in the past seven seasons, appear to have a solid chance of earning a playoff berth in 2007.

Over the next four months, Buffalo's off-season moves will be scrutinized by armchair GMs all over Western New York and beyond as the team builds for the future. As mentioned earlier in my future post, the Bills have a lot of key free agents this off-season (minus kicker Rian Lindell, who was re-signed to a 5-year, $10 million deal). Rest assured that a lot of important decisions will be made in short order.

From one armchair GM to another, here are some general observations about what I expect the Bills' off-season to look like:

Free Agency Will Be Slow
Unlike last season, when Buffalo's front office looked to replace a lot of players whom they had recently let go (i.e. Mike Williams, Sam Adams, Lawyer Milloy, etc.), Buffalo won't be parting ways with so many big names this off-season. Due to that and the fact that a lot of the Bills' core players are unrestricted free agents, don't expect much in the way of new players joining the team via free agency. Sure, the Bills will likely add a few pieces to their young team, but it would be a bit of a stretch to think that big names such as Lance Briggs and Cato June would come to town. If the Bills do target free agents, they will be second-tier players with growth potential. Marv Levy will not bet the bank on big-name players unless they're Nate Clements and London Fletcher-Baker.

Bye Bye, Nate
It is unlikely that Nate Clements will be back with this team next season. Clements had a solid year for Buffalo, but the fact remains that the Bills' defense is still young, raw and needs a lot of attention in other areas. Marv Levy will try his hardest to get Nate to sign here - Clements has been a very solid investment and seems to fit well in Perry Fewell's defensive scheme. But Nate Clements is easily the best cornerback available on the open market. He will get a huge contract offer from a big-spending owner (such as Washington's Daniel Snyder), and he'll take the money - unless Buffalo's offer is extremely close to or matches offers made by other clubs.

Building Through the Draft
Levy and head coach Dick Jauron are firm believers that to win in this league consistently, you need to draft well consistently. The tandem is looking to build on a 2006 draft that eventually gave the Bills five starters. The Bills will need a draft similar to that one to continue to build this team's depth; look for more offensive linemen, defensive linemen, and linebackers to be targeted. Don't be surprised to see a running back, wide receiver or cornerback added as well. Whatever the position, the 2007 rookie class will be counted on heavily.

Within the next few days I'll be providing a list of the Top 10 "Under the Radar" free agents of the 2007 class that could get some attention from the Bills. These ten players could prove to have surprisingly high value in free agency and would be of particular help to a Bills team looking to end its seven-year playoff drought next season.