Don't Crucify the Coach... Yet

On Sunday, the Buffalo Bills saw their playoff chances slip away as the Tennessee Titans upset the Bills 30-29 at Ralph Wilson Stadium. Up nine points heading into the fourth quarter, the Titans - led by Vince Young and Travis Henry - scored ten points in the final stanza to seal their sixth straight victory.

Buffalo had a chance to take the lead in the final minute, however, as J.P. Losman drove the offense to the Tennessee 28-yard line heading into a 20 mile-per-hour wind. However, head coach Dick Jauron (pictured above, middle) elected to attempt a 4th-and-5 rather than send kicker Rian Lindell onto the field to attempt the game-winning 45-yard field goal. Lindell, who had hit all five of his field goal attempts earlier in the game, did not feel that he had a good chance of making the kick into the aforementioned wind.

The Argument
Jauron and his coaching staff appeared disorganized as they weighed their options on the play in question. Obviously, Jauron elected to risk a fourth down attempt rather than kick a field goal that in all likelihood would not have been successful.

Initially, my problem with Jauron was not the decision he made - a legitimate argument can be made for each case. On one hand, Lindell is paid to make kicks. If you have a 45-yard attempt to win the game, you put your kicker out there and he does his job, regardless of how confident he is. On the other hand, if you know that your kicker can't get the job done, then perhaps a fourth down attempt is your best chance at winning the game. Jauron obviously chose the latter, and the argument to back up his choice holds water.

The problem in the situation is that it took the head coach too long to decide. Once the decision was made and communicated, J.P. Losman only had 18 seconds to get a play called, get his offense lined up, and execute. This is a fraction of the usual 40 seconds of preparation that the offense gets. With such a short amount of time to execute the biggest play of his young career, it's no wonder Losman had the play break down. The young man panicked and heaved a desperation pass that was intercepted. Good coaches don't put young quarterbacks in those situations, no matter how successful that quarterback has been. It's a recipe for disaster.

Why I'm Not Going to Panic
As bad as Jauron's lack of mettle was at the end of the game, I'm not going to panic about whether or not I believe he is the right leader for this franchise moving forward. To make such a decision based on one play would be unfair, especially since it pales in comparison to the remarkable job that Jauron has done with an extremely raw team this season.

Look no further than this year's draft class for an example of how great a teacher Jauron is. Donte Whitner, Ko Simpson, Kyle Williams, Keith Ellison and Terrance Pennington have all logged starts and played well in their rookie seasons. The most impressive of the group has probably been Ellison, a sixth-round pick whose football smarts allow him to overcome his physical shortcomings. He will be a valuable depth player for this team next season.

In addition, first-round defensive tackle John McCargo and third-round cornerback Ashton Youboty still have bright futures despite their lack of playing time this season. The production that Jauron has gotten from his first draft class speaks volumes to his ability to teach young football players how to win.

Losman's Development
The other main reason I'm not panicking on Jauron is the fact that once he makes a commitment, he sticks to it. Yes - I'm talking about J.P. Losman. Last season, Losman was handed the starting job, and we all know how badly that turned out. This season, Losman earned the job - and in his first seven starts, his numbers were awful and his record was 2-5. Mike Mularkey would have been chomping at the bit to start Kelly Holcomb.

Not Jauron. Jauron, as quiet as he is, is a leader by example. He stuck with Losman. The results have been very encouraging - he has gone 5-3 since the team's bye week and has kept his team in every game they've played. That includes a close loss in Indianapolis and a come-from-behind near-win at home against the league's best team, San Diego. Losman is a winner - as evidenced by his playmaking ability in the fourth quarter (see the Houston and Jacksonville games for good examples).

Losman's quarterback rating is 86.8, which ranks him tenth overall in the league. More encouraging is his high completion percentage, which at 62 percent is lightyears ahead of last year's 49 percent. The kid is the future of the franchise. Jauron saw it before anyone else and stuck by his man through tough times. It's paid off.

How Will They Respond?
As meaningless as the game may seem to be this weekend as the Bills travel to Baltimore, I view it as the most important game of this young team's season. The ability to rebound from a crushing defeat is of vital importance to be successful in the NFL. Baltimore is still playing for a first-round bye in this year's playoffs. If Buffalo can play with passion and at least make this game competitive, it will tell us a lot about the team's character.

It will also tell us a lot about Jauron's control over the team. Keep an eye on the media surrounding the Bills this week; specifically, keep track of how many questions the players field about Jauron. Likely, they will remain loyal. But it is impossible to deny that the team may begin to question their head coach if they continually hear about last week's miscue. A strong performance in Baltimore would prove that the team firmly believes that Jauron is a great leader.

I believe that the Bills will give Baltimore all they can handle this weekend. It will be a dogfight. The game will be close. There may even be a situation similar to last week, where Jauron has to make a decision under pressure. This team will respond in a positive way, whether it's in victory or in defeat.

Why? Because the Buffalo Bills have an excellent head coach.

Bills-Titans Preview

In their biggest game since the 2004 season finale against Pittsburgh, the Buffalo Bills prepare to meet the Tennessee Titans in tomorrow's battle of aspiring young playoff teams. The main story heading into the game is Titans quarterback Vince Young, who as a rookie has won 7 of his 11 starts. The Titans, once left for dead at 0-5, the Titans have won seven of their last nine under head coach Jeff Fisher's leadership. The streaking young team presents a huge challenge to the Bills.

The Bills, meanwhile, have won five of their last seven and are in the best position of the AFC's four 7-7 teams to make a playoff push. A win on Sunday would keep the team in the race, but they will need some help from other teams to control their own destiny heading into Week 17 (see the playoff scenarios post from Tuesday).

Here is the breakdown of the ultra-important Bills/Titans tilt...

When Buffalo Has the Ball
- Look for heavy doses of Willis McGahee (above) on Sunday. Tennessee is ranked 29th in the league defensively against the run, surrendering 144.6 rushing yards per game. Both McGahee and Anthony Thomas should see their fair share of carries as the Bills try to control the clock and keep Vince Young off the field.

In the passing game, expect a lot of short throws to the likes of Lee Evans and Josh Reed, who has become a key third-down target for emerging quarterback J.P. Losman. The Titans do not match up cornerbacks on wide receivers, so when Lee Evans is matched up with Reynaldo Hill (as opposed to Pac-Man Jones), look for Losman to try to hit the deep passes in those circumstances.

Ultimately, Buffalo will try to establish a dominant run game to exploit Tennessee's biggest weakness. Losman's passes will mostly be short and controlled to prevent the Titans from forcing turnovers and scoring defensive touchdowns - something that has been key in their big win streak.

When Tennessee Has the Ball
- Like Buffalo, the Titans will likely try to establish the run game with former Bill Travis Henry, who has been looking forward to this game for quite some time. The combination of Henry and Young's legs have been difficult for opposing defenses to stop this year - young has 462 rushing yards, a league record for a rookie quarterback.

As good as Tennessee's run game is, their aerial attack is that bad. Young has struggled to make plays in the passing game with three of his top targets on injured reserve (David Givens, Erron Kinney and Ben Troupe). In addition, Drew Bennett is listed as questionable for the game, though it is likely he will play.

Buffalo will likely stack their defensive front in an effort to shut down the running combination of Henry and Young. They will likely force the game into Young's hands, and the future star may have trouble putting the team on his shoulders against an up-and-coming defense.

Prediction
- Buffalo has a clear advantage in this game, playing on their home field against an opponent that is beat up and tiring out. The Bills will need to follow their tested formula of winning the turnover battle to emerge successful in this game - Tennessee has won ballgames based on big plays by their defense. If the Bills can force the game into Vince Young's hands, they should have no problem emerging victorious.

Final Score: Buffalo 24, Tennessee 10.

A Quick Look to the Future

Before we dive head-first into the Bills' matchup with the surging Tennessee Titans (a full preview will be up Saturday), let's quickly cover a topic that has had its fair share of coverage in Buffalo for the past decade: the future.

The matchup with Tennessee could be the last game played in Ralph Wilson Stadium for a host of current Bills. Buffalo has a long list of free agents heading into the off-season, ranging from three defensive starters to a host of fantastic role players. For a team that is improving but still has a long ways to go, this off-season will be just as important as last off-season.

Here is the list of Buffalo's fifteen free agents that the team must make decisions on in the coming months:

Unrestricted Free Agents

- CB Nate Clements: Nate is tied with fellow free-agent-to-be London Fletcher-Baker for the team lead in interceptions with 3. Not only that, Clements has been successful in shutting down some of the most successful wideouts in the league - his best performance coming in Indianapolis, where he held Marvin Harrison to 2 catches for 17 yards. Clements is certain to generate big interest from clubs around the league and is one of the biggest names on the free agent market this year. There is a slim chance that he will return to Buffalo unless he is willing to take a slight pay cut to stay with the team. If he leaves, however, a huge hole would be created in Buffalo's secondary.

- LB London Fletcher-Baker: London, simply put, has been one of the NFL's best linebackers this season. For a full prognosis on London's fantastic year, see his snub post from yesterday. There have been whispers already that owner Ralph Wilson - one of London's biggest fans - has requested that Fletcher-Baker be re-signed. At age 31, he presents a slight risk, as he only has about three or four good years left in the tank. But his leadership has been an invaluable asset to a young Bills defense, and his departure would be a huge blow to this unit's growth.

- K Rian Lindell: Often overlooked is the free agent status of kicker Rian Lindell. He doesn't get much press coverage working on the same team as Brian Moorman, but Lindell has been very successful for the Bills. He has made 90 percent of his field goals this season (18-20), including a last-second game-winner against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Don't be surprised if the Bills re-sign Lindell before he can leave; consistent kickers are very hard to come by in this league.

- DE Chris Kelsay: (Pictured above, left) This very likely will be Kelsay's last home game in a Bills uniform. The Bills have millions of dollars tied up in Aaron Schobel; they re-signed Ryan Denney to a four-year deal last off-season; and they dealt for end Anthony Hargrove in the middle of the season, who is capable of filling in Kelsay's left end role rather easily. This spells doom for Kelsay, who likely will get a solid contract as a defensive end for another team. But it is unlikely he will return next season.

- LG Mike Gandy: Ever since he was moved inside to left guard, Gandy and left tackle Jason Peters have been fairly dominant on the left side of the line. A natural guard, Gandy has made a smooth transition to the inside. Quarterback J.P. Losman has referred to Gandy as the leader of the offensive line, so his departure could be a bad thing for a young Bills team. Ultimately, the coaching staff may want to promote continuity along the offensive front; Gandy is likely to be re-signed and re-claim his left guard role for next season.

- CB Kiwaukee Thomas: Signed to a one-year deal this past off-season, Thomas has been a steady contributor at nickel cornerback this season. Unfortunately, his one season in Buffalo may be all she wrote; the Bills have a young cornerback in Ashton Youboty who will likely be seeing more playing time next season.

- SS Coy Wire: A versatile depth player, Wire has been a great special teams ace and a valuable asset to the depth of the Bills' defense. He has played a valuable role as a reserve linebacker this season, something that he hadn't done since college. With a shift in linebackers likely to come this off-season, Wire could stick around at that position for next season.

- RB Anthony Thomas: Thomas has become a fan favorite in Buffalo, filling in admirably for the rather fickle Willis McGahee. Thomas is only averaging 3.5 yards per carry, but has been outstanding in blitz pickup and has settled into a third-down back role. He may not be back next season, but he is definitely a favorite of his teammates, the coaching staff and many Bills fans.

- WR Andre' Davis: Davis has had little impact at wide receiver. However, his special teams prowess could land him a new contract with the Bills this off-season. Davis has been especially lethal on punt coverage, where his veteran savvy and blazing speed have made him a terror to block. Brian Moorman loves having this guy as one of his gunners.

- FB Daimon Shelton: An underrated fullback, Shelton has been a steady run blocker for Willis McGahee for a few years now. He is a favorite of Dick Jauron's as well. He may be willing to re-sign in Buffalo for a year or two; he has been a solid performer on special teams as well.

Restricted Free Agents

- DE Anthony Hargrove: He has been a great mid-season addition for the Bills. He brings athleticism, versatility and energy to a Bills defensive line that is often overmatched in terms of size. With the ability to play both end spots, Hargrove could get a long-term deal to replace free agent Chris Kelsay at left end for next season.

- CB Jabari Greer: Like Andre' Davis, Greer has carved out a niche on the Bills as a lethal punt coverage man. He and Davis have been key parts of Brian Moorman's career season. He won't be going anywhere; don't be surprised if he sees more time in the defense as well.

- DT Tim Anderson: If he gets an offer from another team, don't be shocked if the Bills let him walk. The team has Larry Tripplett and has big plans for rookies Kyle Williams and John McCargo. Defensive line help also is likely to be an area of focus for the Bills in the off-season, meaning that Anderson's time in Buffalo could be running short.

- RB Shaud Williams: His role in Buffalo has greatly diminished with the arrival of the A-Train. He is often scratched from game-day lineups, and his role has been predominantly on special teams. If he gets an offer from another team, he is almost assuredly gone. He will likely be re-signed if he generates no interest.

Exclusive Rights Free Agents

- RG Duke Preston: Preston has played well next to rookie Terrance Pennington on the right side. Even if Chris Villarrial returns for another season, his versatility as a backup almost certainly means he'll be a Bill next season. He could even get a contract extension if he has a strong enough 2007 campaign.

The Lack of Respect for Fletcher-Baker

Once again, Bills middle linebacker London Fletcher-Baker (pictured right) has been shown a huge lack of respect by being left off of the AFC Pro Bowl roster. Year after year, the diminutive linebacker has consistently been one of the league's best performers at his position. He is a fantastic team leader. He plays hard, he is supremely intelligent, and he overcomes his small stature to be a dominant force in the league. Yet he has never been invited to Hawaii.

This year's snub may be Fletcher-Baker's biggest disrespect yet. Consider the following:

- London has 131 combined tackles, ranking him third in the league behind Miami's Zach Thomas (147) and Houston rookie DeMeco Ryans (137).

- London is tied for second in the league in tackles with 95. He trails Ryans (115) and is tied with Chicago's Lance Briggs at 95.

- London is tied for the league lead in interceptions among linebackers with 3. He is tied with the likes of Brian Urlacher (Chicago), Donnie Edwards (San Diego), and Mike Vrabel (NE).

- London is one of two linebackers in the league to score two touchdowns this season. Fletcher-Baker returned a Tom Brady fumble for a TD in Week One, and then picked off a Brett Favre pass and took it to the house in Week 9. The only other linebacker to score twice this season is Cowboys pass rusher and Pro Bowler DeMarcus Ware.

- London is tied for third in the league with 9 passes defensed this season. He trails Briggs and Washington's Marcus Washington with 10, and is tied with Thomas, Nick Barnett (Green Bay), Bradie James (Dallas) and Shawn Barber (Philadelphia).

- London is the only middle linebacker in the league who starts on a defense that has four rookies in its starting lineup. Kyle Williams (5th round), Keith Ellison (6th round), Ko Simpson (4th round) and Donte Whitner (1st round) give Buffalo the youngest defense in the league. Fletcher-Baker is responsible for getting this young group lined up and in position to make plays. No other linebacker has to deal with that pressure.

What has Denver's Al Wilson Done?
Not convinced yet? Then simply put, you shouldn't be watching football, much less voting for the Pro Bowl rosters. The voting system for these rosters is a farce - how else can you explain Denver's Al Wilson making the roster over Fletcher-Baker? Let's compare the two:

- Fletcher-Baker's 131 combined tackles leaves him with 36 more than Wilson, who has 95.

- Fletcher-Baker's 95 tackles leaves him with 20 more than Wilson, who has 75.

- Al Wilson has not recorded an interception this year. He has not recovered a fumble, and he has not scored a touchdown. He has forced one fumble - a number matched by Fletcher-Baker.

- Fletcher-Baker's 9 passes defensed gives him 5 more than Wilson, who has altered just four throws this season.

- Denver has two second-year starters on defense in cornerback Darrent Williams and safety Domonique Foxworth. Denver starts no rookies on defense.

- Led by Wilson, Denver's star-studded defense ranks 13th in the NFL in total defense, giving up 322.9 yards per game. Led by Fletcher-Baker, Buffalo's rookie-laden defense ranks 14th in the NFL in total defense, giving up 325 yards per game.

There is only one logical explanation for Fletcher-Baker's absence in Hawaii: he plays in Buffalo. The Bills are shown little to no respect by national media, and it appears that this time around, London is the main "beneficiary". What a joke.

Aaron Schobel Reacts
Finally, to wrap it all up, here's what Bills Pro Bowl defensive end Aaron Schobel had to say about London's snub:

"I'm very upset. A lot of guys on our defense played so hard. What he's done over his career you think he'd get a shot." (Quote taken from Schobel's interview with BuffaloBills.com's Chris Brown)

Yes, Aaron. You would think he'd get a shot.

Can the Bills Control Their Own Destiny?

Short answer: with a substantial amount of help, yes. Depending on how certain games shake out this weekend, the Buffalo Bills could head into Baltimore with a "win-and-we're-in" situation in front of them. Here's how:

Where They Stand Now
1. San Diego Chargers (12-2 overall, 10-2 AFC)
2. Indianapolis Colts (11-3 overall, 8-2 AFC)*
3. Baltimore Ravens (11-3 overall, 8-2 AFC)*
4. New England Patriots (10-4 overall, 6-4 AFC)
5. Denver Broncos (8-6 overall, 7-3 AFC)
6. Cincinnati Bengals (8-6 overall, 6-4 AFC)
7. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-6 overall, 5-5 AFC)^
8. New York Jets (8-6 overall, 5-5 AFC)^
9. Buffalo Bills (7-7 overall, 5-5 AFC)
10. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7 overall, 4-6 AFC)#
11. Tennessee Titans (7-7 overall, 4-6 AFC)#
12. Kansas City Chiefs (7-7 overall, 3-7 AFC)

* - Indianapolis currently holds a common opponents tiebreaker over the Baltimore Ravens. The two teams have each played Tennessee, Denver and Cincinnati. Indianapolis is 3-1 in those games, with their only loss coming to the Titans. Baltimore is 2-2 in those games, with losses to the Broncos and the Bengals.

^ - Jacksonville currently holds a head-to-head tiebreaker over the New York Jets. In Week 5, the Jaguars hammered the Jets in a 41-0 victory.

# - Pittsburgh currently holds a common opponents tiebreaker over the Tennessee Titans. The two teams have each played San Diego, Miami and Baltimore. Pittsburgh is 1-2 in those games, beating the Dolphins in Week 1. Tennessee has lost to all three of those teams.

What Needs To Happen This Weekend
1. Buffalo beats Tennessee
- This is a no-brainer. In order for the Bills to make the playoffs, they need to win their last two games. The red-hot Titans pose a huge challenge, but the Bills are playing in front of a home crowd and Vince Young has been feeling the effects of an NFL-length season.

2. Miami beats NY Jets
- A Dolphins win would put the Jets at 8-7. That would place the Bills in a tie record-wise with the Jets, both overall and in the AFC East. The two teams would also share the same record against common opponents, meaning that Buffalo's better AFC conference record would give them the tiebreaker over the Jets. If the Jets win this game, there is no way for the Bills to catch them.

3. New England beats Jacksonville
- A Patriots victory would put the Jaguars at 8-7. Based on Buffalo's 27-24 victory over Jacksonville earlier this season, the Bills would hold the tiebreaker over the Jags. This, obviously, would vault the Bills ahead of the Jaguars with one week left in the season.

4. Denver beats Cincinnati
- If Denver wins this game, they all but secure themselves a wild card spot. If Cincinnati wins, neither team clinches. Why, then, do we want a Broncos victory? Two reasons: the first being that Buffalo really cannot catch Denver. The second reason is that if Denver wins, the Bills would vault past the Bengals in the standings due to their (very slight) advantage in the strength of victory column. This, of course, is contingent on the Bills beating Baltimore in Week 17... more on that in a moment. So, even though Denver would basically clinch a wild card spot, the advantage gained by a Bengals loss outweighs the fact that there is only one spot remaining.

5. Pittsburgh beats Baltimore
- Baltimore is still fighting for a first-round bye in the playoffs. With Indianapolis ahead of them, however, they must win this game to stay alive. Indy is playing Houston this weekend (see below), so the urgency of this victory is even higher. If the Steelers win and the Colts win, the Ravens are eliminated from the first-round-bye race, meaning that they will be playing on Wild Card weekend. If the Ravens win coupled with a Colts win, however, both teams would still be in contention for a first-round bye, meaning that the Ravens would play their regulars in Week 17 against the Bills. With a loss, it is likely that they would try to rest their starters for their home playoff game the following week.

Meanwhile, a Steelers victory would not hurt the Bills. Based on conference record, the Bills would beat out the Steelers even if both teams finished at 9-7.

6. Indianapolis beats Houston
- A Colts win coupled with a Steelers win would eliminate Baltimore from a bye in the first round. That would increase the chances of Baltimore resting their starters for a playoff game the next week. There is no advantage gained to Buffalo if Houston wins this game.

7. San Diego beats Seattle
- There is not much advantage for Buffalo in this game. A Chargers win, however, would officially cement a first-round bye for the Chargers, leaving the Colts to beat out the Ravens for the other spot.

8. Oakland beats Kansas City
- Even if the Chiefs win this game, their poor AFC record would still leave them behind the Bills in the playoff race. A loss to the Raiders would officially eliminate them from contention.

Where They'd Stand If That All Happened
1. San Diego Chargers (13-2, 10-2 AFC)
2. Indianapolis Colts (12-3, 9-2 AFC)
3. Baltimore Ravens (11-4, 8-3 AFC)
4. New England Patriots (11-4, 7-4 AFC)
5. Denver Broncos (9-6, 8-3 AFC)
6. Buffalo Bills (8-7, 6-5 AFC)
7. Cincinnati Bengals (8-7, 6-5 AFC)
8. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-7, 6-5 AFC)
9. New York Jets (8-7, 6-5 AFC)
10. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7, 5-6 AFC)
11. Tennessee Titans (7-8, 4-7 AFC) - would be officially eliminated
12. Kansas City Chiefs (7-8, 3-8 AFC) - would be officially eliminated

There they are, right in the #6 spot! That would leave the Bills with a win-and-you're in game in Baltimore in Week 17, with the Ravens playing for little more than keeping tuned up before the playoffs. This is the ideal situation for the Bills this weekend... lets pray that Santa brings us those gifts!