Combine Stock Report

With the 2007 NFL Draft Combine officially in the books, it's time to take a look back at who this year's top performers were, and which players saw their draft status drop the most.

Ten Risers
1. Patrick Willis, LB, Ole Miss
- I'm gonna come straight out with it - Patrick Willis needs to be the next Buffalo Bill. He ran a 4.49 40-yard dash, proving that he has the speed to excel in the Tampa-2 system. He's a great leader, has the versatility to play any linebacker position, and to top it all off he is great with community service. What's there not to like?

2. Chris Houston, CB, Arkansas
- Houston had a fantastic set of workouts. He ran a 4.32 in the 40 and threw up 26 reps at the bench press. He has likely moved into the first round; his size, however, may keep him from becoming a Bill (5'9", 185).

3. Brian Robison, DE, Texas
- Nobody is quite sure yet where Robison is going to play. Defensive end? Outside linebacker? Regardless, Robison had quite the workout - he ran a 4.67 40 (just three-hundredths slower than Gaines Adams) and looked like a monster athlete in drills. He looks more like an end to me, but ideally he'll add a few pounds if he wants to play there (he weighs 259).

4. Chris Henry, RB, Arizona
- This guy came so far from out of nowhere that NFL Draft Countdown doesn't even have a scouting report on him yet. Rest assured that Scott Wright will be evaluating him soon; Henry's 4.3 40 at 230 pounds raised a lot of eyebrows. This kid's got great athleticism, but he's very, very raw.

5. Sabby Piscitelli, S, Oregon State
- This kid is one of my personal favorite prospects. He's as big as a linebacker (6'3", 224) and runs like a cornerback (4.47). He reminds me of a faster version of our very own Coy Wire. This kid probably won't make the first round, but he's going to be a great value pick for somebody.

6. Greg Olsen, TE, Miami (FL)
- Check my post from Sunday for the full synopsis of Olsen's day. Olsen is a prospect that now could be taken in the latter portion of Round 1. He probably isn't an every-down tight end yet, but boy, does he have the ability to stretch defenses.

7. Tony Ugoh, OT, Arkansas
- If I'm being totally honest, I'd mention that I had never heard of Ugoh before Sunday. This kid is athletic. At a weight of 301, Ugoh pounded out a 5.06 (on a bum hamstring, no less) and looked very athletic in drills. He looks like the type of player who can play inside at guard as well. He's on the rise.

8. Antonio Pittman, RB, Ohio State
- Pittman, who was a force to be reckoned with at Ohio State, had a great workout. He blazed a 4.40 40, answering questions about his speed. He also looked adequate catching the football and has the size to be an every-down player (5'11", 195). If the Bills end up trading Willis McGahee, Pittman may be targeted by Marv Levy.

9. Jason Hill, WR, Washington State
- I wrote about Hill's day in my post from Monday. Knocked for his "lack of straight-line speed", Hill blew away those notions with his 4.32 40. Ultra-productive in college (148 grabs, 32 touchdowns), Hill is going to develop into a fantastic #2 option for somebody.

10. Drew Stanton, QB, Michigan State (pictured top)
- Competing against Heisman Trophy winner Troy Smith for the right to be called the #3 quarterback of his class (behind Brady Quinn and JaMarcus Russell), Stanton didn't disappoint. Reports indicate that he performed well in team interviews and he showed really solid athleticism. He reminds me a lot of Drew Brees.


Ten Tankers
1. Quentin Moses, DE, Georgia (pictured left)
- Moses is the King of the Tankers. Many draft experts had Moses labeled as the top Draft prospect available entering his Senior season. Man, has he disappointed - he'd begun slipping already heading into Indy. His 4.85 times and inability to show much explosion could drop him below Round 2.

2. JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU
- Russell did not work out this weekend. How could he have slipped then? He showed up weighing 265, but none of that weight was chiseled - Russell looked out of shape and soft. Combined with Brady Quinn's presence, Russell only hurt his chances at being drafted #1.

3. Levi Brown, OT, Penn State
- Brown looked solid in workouts, but he just didn't amaze anyone. This is a kid who some (albeit very few) thought could be right up there with Joe Thomas; he just isn't. He ran a 5.39 40, which is acceptable but not great. Brown is still a first-round lock, but he likely isn't good enough for the Bills to consider at #12.

4. Reggie Nelson, S, Florida
- LaRon Landry hurt Nelson more than Nelson hurt himself; in fact, Nelson's workouts were pretty good. But Nelson was being considered by some as the best safety in his class. Landry blew those perceptions away. Nelson will see his stock slide thanks to Landry's dominance in Indy.

5. Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas
- Anderson's decision to skip workouts this weekend was bad in hindsight - Gaines Adams, after his phenomenal showing, is now the top defensive end prospect in this class, bar none. Anderson still has a Pro Day, so his stock isn't even close to being shot, but nonetheless he has slipped in most people's defensive end rankings.

6. Lawrence Timmons, LB, Florida State
- Timmons had been climbing draft boards pretty steadily heading into Indianapolis. His workouts were less than stellar though - he showed average speed (4.59) and overall looks too raw to be an impact player immediately. He also measured in 2 inches shorter than he was listed at Florida State. He'll likely go no higher than the bottom of Round 1 at this point.

7. Jon Beason, LB, Miami (FL)
- As disappointing as Timmons was, Beason was probably moreso. His 4.72 time was very pedestrian. He also looked very slight, although he did look quite fluid in some of his drills. He's not quite the prospect some people thought he was, however.

8. Zach Miller, TE, Arizona State
- Greg Olsen's outstanding performance pulled him ahead of Miller in the tight end battle; it was Miller's terrible performance that put Olsen lightyears ahead in the "race". Miller's 4.83 time and pedestrian athletic ability will likely slide him down into the lower portion of Round 2 at the highest.

9. Darrelle Revis, CB, Pittsburgh
- Revis is another player who declined to work out this weekend. That didn't hurt him, and he had a good excuse (injury). Combined with workouts from just about every other top cornerback prospect in the draft, Revis will slide down boards now. He's still good enough to rebound, but he'll need above-average workouts to do so.

10. Gary Russell, RB, Minnesota
- I didn't really know much about Russell, just that he was a pretty productive runner after replacing current Pats runner Laurence Maroney in Minnesota. Russell's workouts were bad, though - his 4.8 times will likely drop him to a second-day pick.

Defenders Wrap Up Combine Workouts

Defensive linemen, linebackers and defensive backs have been working out the last two days at the Scouting Combine in Indianapolis. With the defensive backs wrapping up their workouts early this afternoon, it's time to take a look at who the top performers were in this year's class of rookie defenders.

Early-Round Talents Shine
Several talented youngsters who are expected to be selected early solidified their standing over the past two days. Topping that list is linebacker Patrick Willis of Ole Miss; much more on him appears below.

Michigan cornerback Leon Hall (pictured right) was outstanding as well. Checking in at 5'11", 193 pounds and pumping out a 4.39 40-yard dash time, Hall has cemented himself as the top cornerback available this year. With great size and speed, Hall is an ideal fit for Buffalo's Cover-2 scheme; he may be too good for Buffalo to nab at #12, however.

As the top safety prospect, LaRon Landry blew away the competition during defensive back workouts. After running a 4.35 in the 40, Landry displayed explosive jumping ability, registering a 37.5-inch vertical jump. This kid is fluid, fast and hits like a mack truck. He'll be a Top-10 pick.

Many people were surprised to see Penn State linebacker Paul Posluszny run the 40 yard dash; he didn't disappoint with his 4.65 time. He has the look of a big, quick linebacker and likely has the versatility to fit into any defensive scheme.

In terms of defensive linemen, two players stood out: Clemson defensive end Gaines Adams and Michigan defensive tackle Alan Branch - both are considered the best prospects at their respective positions. Adams ran a phenomenal 4.64 in the 40 and likely won't slip past the #5 or #6 pick in the draft. Branch may now be a Top-10 pick as well after running a 5.09 at 324 pounds.

Is Willis the Perfect Fit?
Nobody was more impressive to me than Ole Miss linebacker Patrick Willis (featured in a highlight video below). As a 243-pound linebacker, his 4.49 40 time is fantastic. He has the perfect size and speed to be a Cover-2 linebacker (where size is ultra-important for shedding blocks), and has the versatility to play inside or out.

Of course, workout numbers aren't everything. I'll let his play speak for itself. You can view a video montage of his play by clicking here.

I love the fact that Willis can play inside or outside. With the Bills contemplating moving Angelo Crowell inside, it is still uncertain as to whether the team will look to add an inside or outside linebacker. With Willis, it doesn't really matter. The team may decide to move Crowell inside. If so, Willis would be a more-than-capable replacement on the weak side, where his speed and pass rushing ability would be huge assets. If the team decides that Crowell is too valuable at the weak side to move inside, Willis' natural position is in the middle. He would be more than capable of starting as a rookie. He is the ideal fit for the Bills.

I've jumped on the bandwagon: the Buffalo Bills need to draft Patrick Willis at #12 - if he's still there, of course.

Chris Kelsay Re-Signs

In a somewhat surprising move, the Buffalo Bills on Monday announced the re-signing of defensive end Chris Kelsay (pictured left) to a multi-year deal. It is not team policy to release the financial details of new contracts, but ESPN's John Clayton reports that the deal pays $5.75 million per year with $14.5 million being guaranteed over the life of the contract.

Kelsay will join fellow ends Aaron Schobel, Ryan Denney and Anthony Hargrove (who is still an RFA) in what is sure to be an interesting end rotation in 2007. Entering his fifth year in the league, Kelsay will be counted on to improve on his '06 career high in sacks (5.5). Having a dominant pass rush is the most important part of running a successful Cover-2 scheme; Kelsay needs to become a more consistent pass rush threat to help Buffalo achieve that goal.

Was He Worth It?
I've always liked Kelsay as a player. He's an extremely hard worker, plays the game with passion and overall plays well against the pass and against the run. But I could be saying the same things and talking about Denney. Kelsay is a good defensive end, but he is not a great one - the Bills, more than anything, need a dominant pass rusher.

For weeks, I have been lobbying for the Bills to use their top draft choice on a pass-rushing defensive end. I made the point that adding a player such as Clemson's Gaines Adams, Florida's Jarvis Moss or even a second-tier talent such as Purdue's Anthony Spencer (he of the ugly mohawk) to boost the Bills' pass rush. Schobel gets a lot of sacks, but he is not a truly dominant pass rusher - teams don't necessarily have to stack their game plan to stop him game in and game out.

That option is now tossed to the wayside. The team has a bundle of money tied up in Schobel, Denney and now Kelsay - each got at least a four-year deal worth $12 million. That alone may prevent the team from even tendering Hargrove high enough to keep him from signing an offer sheet elsewhere. With three solid ends already on the roster, it's common sense to use that money on other positions of greater need. This is wasted money.

I doubt I'll ever understand this move. But I like Kelsay, and I think he can get better. Most of all, I trust in The Marv. I've got my fingers crossed on this one...

Coaching Staff Development

We are four days away from the opening of the 2007 free agency period. Naturally, most fans are concerned about the potential player additions and subtractions that will occur over the next 2-3 weeks. However, it is important to keep one thing in mind: more important than the players we bring in and let walk is the coaching staff. Specifically, a lot depends on how they develop in their second year as a group.

Throw Conservative Out the Window
Last season, with five different starting rookies at one point or another, the coaching staff (led by Dick Jauron, pictured above right) had to scale back a lot of their scheme in order to keep their team in games. With a full year under their belt, it is time for the coaching staff to lose some of its conservative nature.

I think we're beginning to see it already. Towards the end of the season, the Bills incorporated J.P. Losman into the offense in a big way; 12 of his 19 touchdowns came in the second half of the season, including a three-game stretch in which he threw seven.

We're also seeing the shedding of the convservative nature in the Bills' hard-line stance on certain players, most notably Willis McGahee. The coaches are willing to take the risk of losing players familiar with the scheme if it means that team chemistry will be easier to build. Thus is the case with McGahee.

Grow With the Team
It's fairly obvious that the Bills have one of the youngest teams in the NFL. With the likely departures of players such as Daimon Shelton, Nate Clements, London Fletcher-Baker and possibly even Chris Villarrial, the team has the appearance of getting even younger in 2007. With as much progress as the Bills made in '06, it will be a huge challenge to approach even similar success again - that's me being a realist for the moment. I'll save the "homer" for tomorrow.

With a lot of young players, it will be hard for the coaches to continue to break their conservative mold. Young players such as Losman, Lee Evans and Angelo Crowell will have huge roles next season. Even younger players such as Terrance Pennington, John McCargo, Keith Ellison, Donte Whitner and Ko Simpson will be relied on to develop into sure-fire starters and contribute at a high level. It is certainly feasible, but it is also difficult for a young coaching staff to rely on young players. Get used to it, Bills fans - we're getting better, but we're also getting younger. There will still be growing pains. It's on the coaching staff to mature this organization quickly.

Combine Update: Workouts Day 2
Quarterbacks, running backs and wideouts worked out yesterday, and once again there were some very stellar performances. Topping my list is underrated wideout Jason Hill (pictured left), an ultra-productive player out of Washington State. The one knock on Hill heading into the Combine was his supposed "lack of speed"; it's fair to say that the 4.32 he ran blew those ideas away. This kid just moved into Round 2 - he's going to be a sleeper pick. Love this kid.

One other impressive wideout was Robert Meachem of Tennessee. He pumped out a 4.39 40 time, cementing his status as a first-round pick. I also saw an interview he did with NFL Network - the kid is humble, focused and is going to make some team very happy. I'd put him right up there with the likes of Ted Ginn and Dwayne Jarrett.

At running back, I was excited to hear that Ohio State's Antonio Pittman had run a 4.40. I've always liked his skill set as a runner, and loved watching him play for the Buckeyes. I had been concerned with his listed time of 4.65, however; I think the Bills may target a player like Pittman should they end up trading McGahee.

Combine Wrap-Up
Two days of workouts remain. Linebackers and defensive linemen are working out today, with defensive backs taking the field tomorrow. Expect daily updates on those workouts. On Wednesday, I'll do a Combine Stock report, with analysis on the top 10 players who helped themselves most and the top 10 who hurt themselves most.

Thursday will be a preview of the free agency period. I'll detail the top talents available at each position and outline the top players I feel that Buffalo will target - including their own players. Friday will begin regular updates on the free agency ongoings.

And, as always - feel free to comment!

Combine Update: Workouts Day 1

Workouts have begun at the 2007 NFL Combine, and the first "workout warriors" have begun to show their stuff. Tight End and Offensive Line prospects worked out yesterday, with Quarterbacks, Running Backs and Receivers scheduled to test today.

Olsen, Thomas and Blalock Impress
Nobody impressed more in their individual workouts than Miami (FL) tight end Greg Olsen (pictured left). Olsen has always been mentioned as one of the top two tight ends available in this class; he now stands alone at the top. Olsen blazed a 4.46 in his 40 yard dash, which blew away every other tight end testing by more than two-tenths of a second. He also looked fluid catching the ball and graceful running routes. The one knock still hanging over Olsen's head? Checking in at 254 lbs., he needs to bulk up a bit more before he can be an every-down tight end.

Wisconsin tackle Joe Thomas was also impressive. Thought of as a sure-fire Top-5 pick, Thomas went against the norm for top prospects and worked out at the Combine. He didn't disappoint - his 4.96 40 was outstanding for a tackle, and in general he looked like a master technician and a very fluid athlete. If he can stay healthy (he suffered a severe knee injury in college), he will be dominant.

When it comes to strength, few compare to Texas guard Justin Blalock. The 6'3", 320 pound lineman threw up 40 reps of 225 lbs., proving his strength that becomes so valuable in the running game. Blalock also ran a respectable 5.10 and looked surprisingly nimble in footwork drills. There is still debate as to his true line position - scouts are split as to whether he should play tackle or guard. Blalock played right tackle for most of his career at Texas.

Marv Officially Shopping Willis
As I reported in yesterday's post, the New York Giants have publicly shown interest in acquiring Willis McGahee to replace Tiki Barber. The fun apparently doesn't stop there, however.

An ESPN report indicates that the Bills, led by GM Marv Levy, are actively pursuing trade partners for our disgruntled running back. The Bills are looking to become more versatile at the position, and combined with McGahee's attitude, a trade seems imminent.

The Giants are the only team that have yet been mentioned in the McGahee talks. Other potential suitors include Baltimore, Carolina, Cleveland, Denver, and Detroit. Cleveland and Carolina in particular are intriguing potential destinations for Willis. Stay tuned...

More Workouts Tomorrow
Once again, the QB, RB and WR positions will be working out at the Combine this morning. Expect an update on the star performers as well as other observations tomorrow morning.

Change at RB Imminent?

Reports have surfaced over the last couple of days that indicate that the Bills may be becoming more serious about making a change in their offensive backfield. These initial reports are speculation at the moment, but are interesting nonetheless. Here are the two stories:

Bears RB Jones Seeking Trade
The first report, surfacing out of Chicago, has Bears RB Thomas Jones (right) seeking a trade. His wish will apparently be granted by Bears GM Jerry Angelo, but only at the right price. Jones has been unhappy with his role in the Bears' offense, where he split carries with 2005 first-round pick Cedric Benson.

Jones represents the type of back the Bills would likely seek should they depart with Willis McGahee. Blessed with good speed, vision and great hands out of the backfield, Jones has the ability to handle a full rushing load himself, and would give the Bills the versatility the desperately need from the position.

The likely asking price for Jones is a high draft choice or two. Initially, it is likely that the Bears will ask for a first-round pick, although eventually they may be talked down to a second and a later pick.

Giants GM Reese Replacing Tiki with Willis?
The second report is, admittedly, far less concrete than the Jones report; however, this observation from Chris Brown does hold some water. View the report here

The report holds that when discussing potential trade replacements for the retired Tiki Barber, Giants GM Jerry Reese blatantly mentioned McGahee (pictured left). That is interesting, especially when you consider the fact that some of McGahee's best games have come against the Jets in the Meadowlands - the same stadium where the Giants play all of their home games.

What's interesting is that if the Bills decide to deal McGahee, they may get the pick necessary to deal to Chicago in order to land Jones. This possibility seems far-fetched, but in reality seems a lot more feasible than anybody originally thought.

Combine Update Coming Soon
I've been watching the workouts from the Scouting Combine this morning, and have seen some interesting stuff. In particular, Miami TE Greg Olsen has been stellar in his workouts. Check back early tomorrow morning for a mini-report on some of the players who impressed.

2007 NFL Draft Combine Schedule

For those readers who have access to NFL Network, here is the TV schedule for the coverage of this year's scouting combine:

Thursday 2/22
2PM - Live Press Conference
6:30PM - Path to the Draft, airing from the Combine
7PM - NFL Total Access LIVE from the Combine

Friday 2/23
2PM - Live Press Conference
6:30PM - Path to the Draft, airing from the Combine
7PM - NFL Total Access LIVE from the Combine

Saturday 2/24
11AM - TE, OL, K live workouts (re-airing at 4PM, 8PM)
2PM - Live Press Conference
7PM - NFL Total Access LIVE from the Combine

Sunday 2/25
11AM - QB, RB, WR live workouts (re-airing at 4PM, 8PM)
2PM - Live Press Conference
7PM - NFL Total Access LIVE from the Combine

Monday 2/26
11AM - LB, DL live workouts (re-airing at 4PM, 8PM)
7PM - NFL Total Access LIVE from the Combine

Tuesday 2/27
11AM - DB live workouts (re-airing at 4PM, 8PM)

Wednesday 2/28
8PM - 2007 NFL Combine Wrap-Up Show

For those of you who do not have access to NFL Network (and hate Time Warner because of it), do not fret: I will be providing short updates on the goings-on every day from the Combine.

In addition, NFL Draft Countdown annually provides excellent detailed analysis of every player at the Combine. Check out that source as well - Scott Wright does a fantastic job with that site.

Players to Watch
I will be keeping a keen eye on several players as often as I can throughout the workout process. If you know of somebody that you'd like updates on but don't see them on my personal list below, be sure to leave me a comment so I can keep track of them and give you updates!

RB Darius Walker, Notre Dame
RB Antonio Pittman, Ohio State
RB Lorenzo Booker, Florida State
WR Paul Williams, Fresno State
WR Mike Walker, Central Florida
OT Levi Brown, Penn State
OT Doug Free, Northern Illinois
OG Marshal Yanda, Iowa
DE Gaines Adams, Clemson
DE Jarvis Moss, Florida
DE Adam Carriker, Nebraska
DT Ola Degunduro, Nebraska
DT Amobi Okoye, Louisville
LB Patrick Willis, Mississippi (pictured above)
LB Paul Posluszny, Penn State
LB Jon Beason, Miami (FL)
CB Leon Hall, Michigan
CB Darrelle Revis, Pittsburgh

*all scouting reports on these players available at NFL Draft Countdown

A Role Model for Donte Whitner

In his first season as the Buffalo Bills' starting strong safety, rookie Donte Whitner (pictured right) did little to disappoint. Playing in 15 games (starting 14 of them), Whitner finished second on the team in tackles with 105. He was steady, made few mental errors and did not get beat often in pass coverage. He played a very stellar rookie season.

What Whitner made up for in steadiness, however, he lacked in playmaking ability. Brought in as possibly the most controversial first-round pick of his draft class, Whitner struggled to make plays his rookie season. He intercepted just one pass (in week one against New England) and otherwise was invisible. Fellow rookie Ko Simpson made more plays from the safety position than Whitner did.

Entering his first full off-season, Whitner has to know that there will be more pressure on him to make plays in 2007. As the eighth overall pick in any draft, you're expected to be a difference-maker at whatever position you play. Whitner's not there yet, but certainly has the ability to do so.

In Whitner's Defense
Defensive coordinator Perry Fewell's scheme calls for the safeties to play well both in coverage as well as against the run. Whitner is blessed with the capability of doing both, and doing both well. Whitner is so good in run support, in fact, that due to Buffalo's awful run defense last season, Whitner spent the majority of his time playing close to the line of scrimmage.

Playing run support most of his time, Whitner was taken out of his element for much of the season. In order to make more plays in the secondary, especially from an interception standpoint, Buffalo needs to improve its run defense in order to let Whitner drop back in coverage a bit more often.

Don't misunderstand - even if Buffalo improves its run defense mightily, Whitner will still see time in the box. He will be used in run support often, and will be used as a blitzer more as well. But if the front seven can hold its own against the run more often, Whitner will be in better position to make plays in '07.

Sanders is the Blueprint
One of the more brilliant Cover 2 safeties in the league, Indianapolis' Bob Sanders (left) is the prime example of how the Bills should utilize Whitner. The two players are similar in stature (Whitner stands 5'11", 205; Sanders is 5'8", 206). Sanders plays free safety for the Colts, while Whitner is the strong safety in Buffalo. Their responsibilities are a bit different, but the way these players are utilized shouldn't be.

Sanders specializes in big plays and bone-crunching hits. He is a terror in run support, and is used as a blitzer more than occasionally. When he is out of the Colts' lineup (which is surprisingly often), the Colts' defense isn't close to the same.

There are two main differences between Whitner and Sanders, and neither of them is talent. The first is the scheme. The Colts, who have been using the Cover 2 scheme since Tony Dungy's arrival and are much more comfortable with it, are better able to put Sanders in situations where he can make plays. As Buffalo continues to develop its defensive scheme in Year Two of the Dick Jauron regime, the coaches will be better able to put its best defenders in position to make plays.

The second main difference is experience. Sanders has played enough professional football to better know the nuances of the position. He knows what he can get away with, and he takes better angles when trying to make tackles. Whitner has a lot to learn in this department - too often last year, he would meet a running back in the backfield at a bad angle and miss the tackle. Those are big plays that he needs to learn to make next season. With more experience, those plays should come.

2007 Forecast
Buffalo will be looking to improve as a unit on the defensive side of the football next season. With a new scheme being implemented last year, the team spent most of its time trying not to screw up rather than being aggressive. That will change next season. The coaching staff will take more chances with stunts and blitzes, and will better be able to put its playmakers in position to change ballgames. Year Two will see Donte Whitner become a much more integral player on the Bills.

Levy's "State of the Bills" Press Conference

Yesterday, Bills General Manager Marv Levy (left) spoke to reporters for a half-hour about the 2006 season and how the team plans to better the Bills this off-season. Before I get into my opinions on the interview, here are some of the highlights of the press conference:

Cash to Cap Approach
Arguably the biggest news coming out of the press conference was Levy's admitting to a new philosophy in Buffalo: the Cash to Cap approach. Without getting into too much detail, this essentially means that Buffalo is not going to place huge investments in single players - they are going to spend money as if it was a number on this year's cap figure, rather than acting as if that money was spread out in the future. This will allow them to minimize the amount of money they spend, and maximize the value they can get out of free agency.

For a far more detailed analysis on Cash to Cap, see Chris Brown's synopsis here.

This Cash to Cap approach is by far the most economical decision the Bills could make. For a small market club trying to compete with the big boys, it will be difficult to sign players - but not so difficult that the team can't bring in top-flight talent through free agency. It is unlikely that the team will be able to throw around huge signing bonuses (which doesn't bode well for the likelihood of a Nate Clements return). Other than that, the team will still be free agent players - just careful ones.

Buffalo's Free Agents
Levy was quick to point out that he would love to retain Clements, London Fletcher-Baker and Chris Kelsay. He made the claim that the best free agents available are your own, citing the re-signings of Ryan Denney and Josh Reed last off-season as the biggest keys to the team's free agency success. He mentioned Robert Royal and Melvin Fowler as two names who were as important to the team last season (notice the absence of Larry Tripplett's name in there) as key free agent signings.

Clements, Fletcher-Baker, Kelsay, Mike Gandy, Kiwaukee Thomas, Anthony Thomas, Andre' Davis, and Daimon Shelton remain unsigned as Buffalo's unrestricted free agent class. If Levy's words hold true, all eight of these players will get serious consideration from the Bills to be part of their 2007 roster.

Losman's Supporting Cast
When discussing the offense, Levy was quick to state that a) he loves the progress made by quarterback J.P. Losman, and believes he will soon enter the upper tier of quarterbacks in the league, and b) he discussed the need to surround Losman with better offensive talent.

Surprisingly, Levy does not feel that a new wide receiver needs to be brought in. The GM had extremely high praise for Lee Evans and spoke highly of Reed, Roscoe Parrish and Peerless Price as well. Instead of wideout, Levy cited the need to involve the tight end and backs more in the receiving game. (Side note: see my post on this subject here.)

While the coaching staff believes that Robert Royal has a much bigger role to play in the passing game, Royal needs to have the opportunity. He must have fewer responsibilities when it comes to pass blocking. Which leads to...

O-Line the Biggest Need
Right out of the gate, Levy pointed out that improved play along the offensive line will be the biggest point of emphasis heading into the off-season. He was also quick to mention that in no way did that mean he would be courting several high-priced free agents at the position; Levy feels that much of the improvement can come internally.

A lot of speculation has risen lately about the viability of second-year man Brad Butler pushing for a starting role either at RT (replacing fellow second-year player Terrance Pennington) or inside at guard, where Gandy is a free agent and Duke Preston is anything but experienced. The Bills' coaching staff feels that Butler made big strides at the end of the '06 season after struggling through a shoulder injury much of the year. With a big frame and a nasty on-field demeanor, Butler could be the starting right tackle in 2007.

Levy will likely target offensive line first when free agency begins March 2.

Takeo Spikes' Future
Much to my dismay, Levy revealed that neither he nor the coaching staff had developed any contingency plans in which Takeo Spikes would move to middle linebacker should Fletcher-Baker leave via free agency. I recently wrote a post in which I made the claim that Spikes would thrive inside; you can read that here.

From what Levy said, the coaching staff is still trying to determine if Spikes fits into the defensive scheme in Buffalo. The GM did not sound convinced. With just two years remaining on his deal, Spikes is sure to have a high cap number. The team may keep him around for this year with more transition to come at linebacker, but by no means does Spikes' future in Buffalo sound secure. If he's not released this off-season, this will be his last year in Buffalo, mark my words.

What We've Learned
What we've learned is this: the Bills are going to be free agent players, but don't expect the signing of big names. The team will take a free agent approach much like the Patriots have in past years. The team is going to try to re-sign Clements and possibly Kelsay, but won't get into bidding wars for either of them. Levy wants attacking linebackers, which all but ensures the departure of Fletcher-Baker.

The offensive line will receive high priority, but the team may look to improve the starting lineup internally. Takeo Spikes may not be with the team much longer. Most importantly, the team has settled on J.P. Losman as its starting quarterback of the future and appears much closer to building a team around him than ever before.

The "State of the Bills" address has been made. Now we wait for the Scouting Combine (2/24) and free agency (3/2). Let the games begin!

Developing J.P. Losman

Several NFL experts - including ESPN's Ron Jaworski, who is the most prominent of the lot - have already come forward to make the claim that they believe the 2007 Buffalo Bills will be the "surprise" team of the upcoming season. Those claims are a testament to the respect that is felt league-wide for GM Marv Levy, head coach Dick Jauron and his coaching staff.

While these statements are nice to hear, they are also very risky. Buffalo has an extraordinarily difficult schedule to play through next season. They also remain one of the league's youngest teams, and are likely to see some overhaul at several key positions, including offensive line, linebacker and cornerback. Factor in the Willis McGahee situation, and there are a lot of question marks that could prevent the Bills from achieving that "surprise" status next year.

Nothing is more important to success next year, however, than the continued development of still-green quarterback J.P. Losman (above, right).

2006 Progression
Few will deny that Losman turned his career around in '06, winning a QB competition in training camp and performing well enough to easily nail down the starting job in 2007. Losman finished his first full year of starting with 3,051 yards on a 62.5% completion rate, while throwing 19 touchdowns as compared to 14 interceptions. His 84.9 rating blew away the 64.9 he posted in a half-season's worth of work in 2005. From a statistical standpoint, Losman improved by leaps and bounds.

One other area of improvement for Losman was in confidence. That includes the confidence he has in his own abilities; as the season progressed he became more comfortable in different situations and started to rely more on his teammates. It also includes the confidence that others have in him. Jauron is fully convinced that Losman can be an upper-tier starter in this league. His teammates believe that Losman can lead them deep into the playoffs, and will be able to do so year in and year out in the future. He has established himself as the future of the franchise.

But he's not there yet.

Building Around the Centerpiece
I have already been a big proponent of building an offense around Losman. It is clear that this is in Levy's plans. Many people have already developed theories about how best to maximize Losman's talents and build a flexible, dependable offense. I myself have written posts about skill position depth, the running back situation and the offensive line. These are just my ideas on how to best build around Losman.

(Side note: ESPN's Len Pasquarelli has hopped on the "Galliford Bandwagon" - he wrote an article about the oncoming prevalence of the two-back system in the NFL. You can view the article here. My Bills version of that article is linked above, and appears here as well.)

The point here, however, is that providing Losman with more offensive depth will only increase his confidence heading into OTAs this spring. The team could look to add any of the following: a receiving RB, a receiving TE, a complement to Lee Evans, or even a fullback that is more versatile than Daimon Shelton. Levy will also look to bolster the offensive line, which again bodes well for Losman. It is going to be an exciting off-season for our quarterback; knowing that he won't have to look over his shoulder, he can concentrate on building repoire with his new offensive teammates and moving forward in the offense.

Consistency the Key
As bright as Losman's future is, more progress needs to be made in 2007. Losman must find a way to perform on a much more consistent basis. Entering his second season in Steve Fairchild's offense, the team will likely look to add more wrinkles to the basic system that was implemented last year. That will complicate Losman finding consistency, but will really help the offense as a whole. He will need to consistently make plays, keep his team in games and continue to build knowledge of his offensive system.

Losman must also limit his mistakes. Even though he only threw 14 picks (which, of course, should be lowered in '07), Losman made a lot of boneheaded plays that came back to cost his team (taking a safety in Week One at New England comes to mind). There were also several instances where Losman lost fumbles after holding the ball too long in the pocket. The best quarterbacks in the league do not put their teams in compromising positions. Losman must learn to avoid these situations. Experience will help in that department.

Finally, Losman must continue to rely on his teammates. The youngster had his best games when he was involving players such as Josh Reed, Roscoe Parrish and Robert Royal in the passing game. Not everything can revolve around Lee Evans, and there were still points where Losman would lock on to his top target. If Losman can consistently involve all of his weapons game in and game out, he will undoubtedly continue his progression in the NFL.

Defense Needs a Pass Rush

In the first year under defensive coordinator Perry Fewell, the Bills' defense adjusted well to a brand new defensive scheme based on the famed "Tampa 2" defense. This new scheme was much different than anything the Bills have ever run - lighter, faster defenders were brought in to replace strong, meaty ones. Players had to adjust to new roles at their positions. Overall, the transition was pretty smooth.

Despite that success, the Bills still have plenty of weak areas. The team's run defense, in general, was pretty bad. The team gave up a lot of big plays through the air as well. A third problem area was third down defense - Buffalo often could not get off the field, leading to extended drives for the opposition. All of these issues need to be addressed this off-season. An improved pass rush would help to solve all three problems.

Sacking a Cover 2 Must
The one thing Buffalo really lacks is a premiere pass rushing threat. Sure, Aaron Schobel (above, left) went to the Pro Bowl this year after registering 14 take-downs. The team finished with 37.5 sacks total, which admittedly is not a low number. However, the numbers behind Schobel's 14 are unimpressive, at best: Ryan Denney registered 6 (three in one game against Miami, if you recall), Chris Kelsay had 5.5, and Larry Tripplett finished fourth with just two and a half. Those numbers aren't exactly going to scare offensive coordinators into taking double teams away from Schobel.

Cover 2 defenses thrive on getting pressure on the quarterback. Pressure leads to hurried throws, and against a zone defense, hurried throws get intercepted. Without a consistent pass rush (note: consistent is the key word there), quarterbacks and receivers have the necessary time to find holes in the zone and exploit even the most talented of defensive backfields. Too many times in '06, quarterbacks had all day to sit and wait for a receiver to find a hole.

Cover 2 Sack Artists: A Rich History
Some of the league's most feared pass rushers of recent years evolved from an aggressive Cover 2 scheme. Simeon Rice and Warren Sapp wreaked havoc on quarterbacks when the two played for Tampa Bay. Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis are lethal edge rushers for the Super Bowl Champion Colts. Practically the entirety of the Chicago Bears' defensive line fits the bill. Heck, even Jared Allen has become a household name thanks to Herm Edwards' Cover 2 scheme in Kansas City.

Outside of Schobel, the Bills do not have a pass rush threat that opposing offenses need to pay attention to on every play. That limits the effectiveness of Schobel. While Kelsay, Denney and even Anthony Hargrove (pictured below, right) played effectively, none are the sack artist threat that Buffalo really needs.

Luckily, the 2007 draft is chock-full of nifty pass rushers that will assuredly tempt GM Marv Levy.

Four Potential Answers
With Kelsay a free agent, he will likely be signed by another club. That will leave Denney and Hargrove to split time opposite Schobel at end. (Provided, of course, that Hargrove is re-signed; the 23-year old is a restricted free agent.) The same problem is apparent: the Bills need to add a fourth end who can play pass downs and be the "pass rush specialist" that will really make this defense tick.

There are four rookies who really fit that bill. Gaines Adams is probably the draft's most ferocious pass rush threat coming out of Clemson. The one knock on him at the moment is that he may be slightly undersized. Playing at his listed weight of 260, he would be just two pounds lighter than Schobel, who generally doesn't have an issue holding up against the run. Adams may be too talented to fall to the #12 pick, however.

Jarvis Moss is a name that is climbing draft boards rapidly. Moss, of the national champion Florida Gators, is even lighter than Adams is. However, his 4.65 timed speed (which could be bettered at the Combine) would look great in a situational role as an edge rusher for Buffalo. He may be a bit of a reach at #12 for now, but he is certainly a hot commodity.

A third option is Notre Dame's Victor Abiamiri. This pass rush specialist is certainly talented, but a bit more of a raw prospect than either Adams or Moss. He is certainly not worth the 12th pick at the moment, but may be an option if the Bills trade down and acquire a lower first-round pick.

A second round option would be Anthony Spencer of Purdue. After a fantastic senior year, Spencer is a player who will have outstanding workouts and be coveted by a lot of teams that run a 3-4 defensive scheme. He would be a nice option for pass-rush duty and, at least for now, may not cost the Bills their first-round pick.

More Blitzing in '07?
Having a better pass rush will increase the effectiveness of the entire defense - defensive tackles, linebackers and the secondary included. More importantly, however, is this: a second year in Fewell's scheme may allow the coaching staff to take more chances on defense by sending blitzes.

With two rookie safeties in Donte Whitner and Ko Simpson last year, the Bills were extremely hesitant to send blitzes - it would have left the young defenders in a highly dangerous situation. With a year under their belt, however, the Bills may be more comfortable in sending Takeo Spikes, Angelo Crowell and perhaps even Terrence McGee on the occasional blitz. That would also help create a more consistent pass rush for the Cover 2 scheme.

One way or another, Levy has to understand that if he wants his defense to truly dominate, a better, more consistent pass rush is sorely needed.

O-Line: Build or Develop Continuity?

After starting off the 2006 season 2-5, Bills head coach Dick Jauron and his staff decided to make a major change to their team. Coming out of their bye week, the Bills had re-shuffled their offensive line, with three players at new positions. The most obvious switch involved rising star Jason Peters (right), who moved from the right side to protecting J.P. Losman's blind side at left tackle. The results were mixed, but were also improved - the Bills went on to finish the season 5-4 behind their new line.

With the improved line play a key factor in Buffalo's late-season playoff push, there are many experts who claim that the key to Buffalo's success is to let that line continue to play together and gel. Another school of thought, however, is that for the Bills to become true contenders, they need to continue to upgrade the talent along their offensive front.

Uncertainty at Guard
There is a lot of uncertainty about who will be playing guard for the Bills next season. First of all, left guard Mike Gandy is an unrestricted free agent. Gandy looked far more comfortable after moving inside from left tackle, and Losman has acknowledged in the past that Gandy is the leader of the group up front. Many feel that his position could be upgraded, however.

Even less certain is the future of veteran Chris Villarrial. Injured for much of the past two years, he may end up being released if he does not retire. Duke Preston played sufficiently well in his stead last year, but again, this may be a position the Bills look to upgrade. Preston has great value to the team, however, because he can play both guard and center.

Terrance Pennington
For a rookie seventh-round pick, Terrance Pennington was more than adequate as the starting right tackle for the last half of the season. While he is still a very raw prospect and far from a dominating blocker, Pennington made few mistakes in the Bills' strong second-half showing. A lot depends on the coaching staff's confidence that Pennington will continue to mature into a starting-caliber player. If the staff believes they can enter 2007 with Pennington on the right side (which I do believe they will), then he has virtually locked down a starting gig.

Depth a Huge Issue
Despite fielding at least a respectable starting five along the line, the Bills have very little depth behind this group. When Villarrial was lost for the season, it left the Bills with just three reserves along the line - Tutan Reyes, Brad Butler and Aaron Merz. Reyes was benched from his left guard spot after an injury limited his effectiveness. Butler and Merz saw very limited action as rookies. Even if Villarrial returns, the Bills need depth players, and fast.

Depth is most needed at tackle. Butler was drafted as a tackle, but saw a lot of practice action inside last year. The team does not have a backup besides Butler who can play tackle. If Peters were to go down, that would leave Pennington as the team's top tackle. So regardless of whether the team leaves Pennington as its starting right tackle, the team needs to bring in a depth player at tackle - preferably a veteran.

Preston and Merz both have the ability to play center, so they could conceivably fill in if Melvin Fowler (left) were to get hurt. So while a starter or two may be needed on the interior, depth may just be OK.

What the Bills Will Do
Will the team strive for continuity? If they do, Gandy will be re-signed and the team will keep its starting lineup from last season. They will also likely look to add some veteran depth rather than rookies - especially at tackle, where depth is sorely needed behind Pennington.

Will the team continue to build? If they do, Gandy is likely gone. The team could then use some of its $37 million of cap space to go after top free agent guard Kris Dielman, who would be a natural fit at either guard spot and would give the Bills a devastating run blocker.

My theory: the Bills will do a combination of both. From a continuity standpoint, the Bills will let Terrance Pennington keep his starting right tackle job. For a young player, he played well and he deserves a shot to nail down that job long-term. Peters and Fowler will also keep their starting spots. That leaves the two guard spots in question.

I believe that the Bills will re-sign Gandy to play left guard - Gandy is a much more natural fit on the inside, and his play level increased dramatically when he wasn't on the edge. He also plays well next to Peters, which bodes well for him. Right guard is a totally different story, however - the team will likely be without Villarrial, and the coaching staff would likely feel more comfortable with Preston as their top interior reserve rather than a starter.

Look for the team to look at Dielman, but also some other guards that will come for less money. Derrick Dockery of Washington and Ryan Lilja of Indianapolis are two prime examples - Lilja is a restricted free agent. Whoever the answer may be, look for Buffalo to sign a player to compete with Preston at right guard, re-sign Gandy, and look for a veteran backup who can play either tackle position.

Projected starting lineup:
LT: Jason Peters
LG: Mike Gandy (re-signed)
C: Melvin Fowler
RG: Preston OR free agent addition
RT: Terrance Pennington

The Future of Takeo Spikes: MLB

Much has been said this off-season about the free agent status of London Fletcher-Baker, and how his loss could have big negative effects on the defense. Those feelings aren't unfounded - London led the team with 146 tackles, and was the captain of the defense throughout 2006. He has been a great leader and community member in Buffalo, and it will be a sad day if (when?) he leaves.

Fletcher-Baker's status seems almost set in stone, however. A much more interesting question to ponder: what does the future hold for another standout Bills linebacker, Takeo Spikes (above, right)?

2006 - Rehab Year
It's common knowledge that the 2006 season marked Spikes' return from a torn Achilles' tendon that he suffered early in 2005. The lingering effects of that injury were obvious - combined with a new defensive scheme, Spikes saw his playmaking abilities and production suffer from previous seasons with the team. Spikes finished just seventh on the team with 70 tackles. In fact, early on in the season, Spikes would be taken out in nickel situations in favor of Angelo Crowell and Keith Ellison. It was only when Crowell went down with a season-ending injury that Spikes saw the field on third down.

Spikes will turn 31 at the end of the 2007 season. He will be entering the fifth year of a six-year deal he signed as a free agent in 2003. With just two years left on his deal, his career in Buffalo may fast be coming to a close.

Criticism of the Front Office
Spikes has also been openly critical of the Bills' front office this off-season. When the Bills re-signed K Rian Lindell to a five-year extension prior to the end of the season, Spikes was upset for three of his defensive teammates. Fletcher-Baker, Nate Clements and Chris Kelsay are all starters on a young defensive unit, and Spikes felt that the Lindell signing was a slight to those three players - he felt they should be hearing extension talks as well.

His frustration is understandable. Spikes left Cincinnati in 2003 and came to Buffalo to become a winner. Now the Bengals are seemingly on the verge of greatness, while Spikes has spent four more seasons toiling in relative anonymity. He has been described as "fiercely passionate" and "the heart of the defense". While the criticism may not be something fans and the Bills organization like to hear, he may have a point.

Where Does He Play?
With the combination of his heel injury, hitting the age of 30 and a new defensive scheme, it's still relatively unclear where Spikes would be most comfortable in this defense. I'll posit my idea here: put Takeo in the middle. Let him replace London.

There are three reasons I'd do this. First: Speed. Spikes, whether he or anyone else admits it, has lost a step. In Buffalo's defensive scheme, speed is absolutely essential from the outside linebacker position. Ellison and Crowell, at this point, both have more speed than Spikes - they need to stay on the outside. (Note: Crowell would still be a fantastic fit in the middle - Spikes is more prudent.) However, saying that Spikes has lost a step doesn't mean he's not fast - he's just as fast as Fletcher-Baker is. The Bills wouldn't be losing much, if any, speed on the inside.

Second: Size. Fletcher-Baker, for all he has accomplished, still is not a good fit in this defense - size at the linebacker position is a must in the Cover 2. By moving Spikes inside, the Bills would be gaining four inches of height at the position while keeping the same weight (London goes 245, Spikes 242). By comparison, the best Cover-2 middle linebacker in the game is Chicago's Brian Urlacher. He excels at his craft because of his immense size (6'4", 258). It is his size that allows him to shed blocks behind a penetrating defensive line. It is his height that makes him nearly impossible to throw over when he drops back into coverage. Spikes isn't as tall or as meaty as Urlacher, but he's closer to that mold than London is.

Third: Ease of Transition. Spikes truly is the heart and soul of the defense. With a year of playing time under his belt post-Achilles, he will likely be closer to his old self in 2007 than he was this past year. Spikes (pending Fletcher-Baker leaving) would also be the veteran of the group - it would be vital to the Bills' success to have him as their defensive captain/leader, despite him never really filling that position before. He also knows the defense, so throwing him into the middle would be easier to pull off than signing a free agent or drafting a rookie.

Most importantly, his age is a factor. He is not going to be playing in the league much longer than four or five more years. If you put him in the middle now, you're putting your defense's best linebacker at the most important position. It also allows the team time to bring in a young player (Ole Miss LB Patrick Willis?) to groom behind Spikes for the last two years of his contract.

Sound off! What would you do with Takeo Spikes? Cut him? Trade him? Leave him outside? Move him in? Leave a comment!

Finding a Complement for Lee Evans

Despite the steady progress that J.P. Losman showed in his first full season as the Bills' starting quarterback, it's fairly obvious that if he is going to continue that progress, the talent around him needs an upgrade. Buffalo's only consistent receiving threat was third-year man Lee Evans (left), whose solid stats should have landed him in the Pro Bowl.

Evans comprises far too much of Buffalo's receiving production, however. His 82 receptions were nearly 31% of Losman's completions. His 1,292 yards were over 43% of Losman's yardage total. Eight of Losman's 19 touchdowns went to Evans. Many experts (and fans, for that matter) feel that if Evans is going to meet or exceed those promising numbers in 2007, the Bills need to find players who can take double coverage away from the speedster.

WR Depth is Versatile
While there does not appear to be a legitimate #2 threat to Evans, there is undoubtedly a wide array of skills and talent behind him. Peerless Price didn't have great numbers (49 receptions, 402 yards, 3 TD), but he did come up with some clutch catches during the season - specifically his game-winning grab at Houston. Josh Reed developed a nice rapport with Losman and became a primary option on third down. He finished with 34 grabs for 410 yards and two scores. Roscoe Parrish was relatively inconsistent during the year, but his big plays combined with his continued growth could make him a much larger part of the offense next year. Parrish finished second on the team with a 13.9 yards-per-catch average.

Each of these three players has distinct roles in Buffalo's offense. Most weeks, one of these three would step up and have a solid game - which played a big role in Evans' solid season. So while neither of these three can be considered a legitimate #2, they certainly are important to Losman and the offense.

Upgrade the "Secondary" Skill Positions
As enticing as it is to talk about the Bills drafting the likes of Dwayne Jarrett, Ted Ginn and Dwayne Bowe, it's not going to happen. Not because the Bills are cheap, and not because these players aren't worthy. It just doesn't need to happen. There are better ways to give Losman more options.

Let's start at tight end. By season's end, Losman was looking for Robert Royal in the red zone just as much as Evans. The Bills love to operate out of two tight-end sets - Brad Cieslak saw a lot of time in this role. But as good as these players are, the team does not have a true receiving threat at the position. Luckily, tight end is deep this year, both in free agency as well as the draft.

There are two tight ends that could be dependable dump-down options for Losman. (Daniel Graham and Jerramy Stevens have been left off this list due to their likely re-signings.)

San Francisco's Eric Johnson (above, right) has been a highly productive tight end in this league. In 2005, he totaled 82 receptions and made the Pro Bowl. He has had some injury problems in the past, so he likely won't be pursued by many wary teams. He also won't return to San Francisco, where Vernon Davis will be the starting tight end. Johnson would give the Bills a young vet with proven receiving skills to operate out of the two-tight end set with Royal.

A great rookie to consider is Zach Miller of Arizona State. A highly productive tight end in college, Miller has elite tight end speed and would give the Bills an extremely versatile receiver from the tight end position. He also has the ability to mature as a blocker, so he would not be much of a liability in the run game.

Running back is important too. Many good teams are able to use their running backs as receivers out of the backfield. Anthony Thomas was used in this role last year, as he finished sixth on the team with 22 receptions. Although he played well, this is not an ideal role for the A-Train. The Bills need to bring in a player such as Cincinnati's Kenny Watson or a rookie such as Notre Dame's Darius Walker to give Losman a receiving option out of the backfield. A versatile backfield is important to success in the NFL - see my post on the Bills' RB situation for a further explanation of this.

Having four skilled wide receivers, two threats at tight end, a versatile H-Back type option in Cieslak (who filled in at fullback when Daimon Shelton was put on IR) and a stable of versatile backs with running and receiving skills will go much further toward helping Losman than breaking the bank for a "complement" to Evans. A second receiving option would be nice, but the Bills don't need to break the bank for one when they have so many other positions of need.

Defensive Tackle - Need or Strength?

Much has been made this off-season about the relative weakness of Buffalo's run defense. The criticism is well-documented, and also is well-deserved - the Bills ranked 28th in the league in rushing defense in 2006, surrendering 140.9 yards per game. Only Cleveland, Tennessee, St. Louis and Indianapolis fared worse in the regular season. If the Bills wish to become playoff contenders, they will need to shave at least 30 yards per game off that total next season.

Many NFL and draft "experts" predict that the way Buffalo will fix their run defense is to load up on defensive tackles. Free agent names such as Ian Scott, Robaire Smith, Alfonso Boone and Hollis Thomas have been mentioned in the same breath as the Bills. In addition, some early mock drafts have the Bills choosing players such as Michigan DT Alan Branch, Louisville DT Amobi Okoye or even Nebraska DE Adam Carriker (a player with big potential who can play either inside or end).

Young Depth
Here's my prediction: Buffalo will not sign a high-priced defensive tackle. Here's another prediction: the Bills will not draft a defensive tackle on Day One. There is no need. Why, you ask?

It's simple: Defensive Tackle is the deepest position on Buffalo's roster.

Defensive coordinator Perry Fewell's scheme calls for interior linemen that are athletic, fast, and hustle to the ball play in and play out. The Bills have three such athletes on their roster. Larry Tripplett will enter the second year of his four-year deal as a starter. Fifth-round pick Kyle Williams emerged as a starter as a rookie, and will be counted on as a key contributor to the rotation once again next year. And the team also likes to rotate ends Ryan Denney and Anthony Hargrove to the inside as well, giving the team an added pass-rush element on passing downs.

McCargo's Role
The wild card of the group is first-round pick John McCargo (pictured above), who missed the majority of his rookie campaign after landing on Injured Reserve. With Tim Anderson all but a lock to leave as a free agent, McCargo will be counted on heavily to earn a starting spot next to Tripplett. McCargo is listed at 295 (the same weight as Tripplett and Williams), but don't be surprised if he comes into camp with an extra 7-10 pounds of muscle on him.

McCargo could be counted on as the every-down player of this group. He has the greatest ability of any of the linemen on the club, with the ability to get after the passer as well as hold up against the run. With McCargo playing every down possible, it will allow the Bills to rotate Tripplett, Williams, Denney and Hargrove on the inside - five players who specialize in certain areas of the game.

The "Run-Clogger"
Stemming from the days of Ted Washington, Pat Williams and Sam Adams playing nose tackle in Buffalo, a lot of Bills fans have been calling for a 330-pound behemoth on the inside to occupy blockers in the run game. It's not surprising to hear these pleas, because that system has worked in Buffalo in the past.

Get used to this fact: Buffalo's current defensive system does not employ the "Run-Clogger". There will be no behemoth tackle who plays run downs to occupy two guards and a center. That is not how Buffalo's system works - this system is built around speed, penetration and disruption. You're not going to get that out of a "Run-Clogger".

No Rookie, No Big Name... then who?
There is one player out there who I think would be a very solid fit as a tackle in Buffalo's system. Aubrayo Franklin (left) has spent his first four years with the Ravens and will be a restricted free agent this off-season. Listed at 320, he would likely be asked to shed a few pounds, down to the 310-315 range in Buffalo.

Marv Levy has a history of going after restricted free agents - he signed Chicago DT Israel Idonije and Arizona LG Reggie Wells to offer sheets just last off-season. Franklin is just 26 years old and comes from a defense that is annually the best against the run. He also wasn't a starter there - something that bodes well for the Bills.

Franklin, if he gets a large enough offer, will likely not be retained by the Ravens - the team has a lot of salary cap dollars tied up in linemen Trevor Pryce and Haloti Ngata. Franklin backed up nose tackle Kelly Gregg, but his size and athleticism would make him the ideal run-oriented tackle in Buffalo's scheme. If Marv goes after any tackle in the free agent class, my money is on Franklin - he would be a fantastic guy to rotate in for McCargo and Tripplett.